中国实用儿科杂志2025，Vol.40Issue(5)：407-412,6.DOI:10.19538/j.ek2025050612
紫癜性肾炎患儿肾小球滤过率下降风险预测及列线图的建立
A nomogram for predicting GFR decline in children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura nephritis
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the risk factors for renal damage in children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura(HSP),and to develop a nomogram for predicting decreased glomerular filtration rate(GFR)in children with Henoch-Schonlein purpura nephritis(HSPN).Methods 116 children with HSPN confirmed by renal biopsy from July 2021 to June 2024 were enrolled.The demographic characteristics,clinical and renal pathological characteristics of children with HSPN were utilized to develop a nomogram model for predicting the progression of HSPN.Ten-fold cross-validation was used to select the optimal harmonic coefficient λ in the model.The discrimination and accuracy of the prediction model were evaluated based on the receiver operating characteristic curve(ROC)and calibration curve,respectively,and a nomogram was drawn.Results The results showed that serum creatinine and renal pathology were independent risk factors affecting the progression of HSPN(P＜0.05).Two variables affecting the prognosis of children with HSPN were selected through the LASSO regression method,and a nomogram was built based on these variables.The predictive model yielded an AUC of 0.957(95％CI 0.925-0.990),The calibration curve showed that the risk factors for HSPN progression predicted by the nomogram were in good agreement with the actual results.The decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram model could obtain clinical benefits within a large threshold range(0-90％).It has good practicability.Conclusion In this study,Based on the two independent risk factors of serum creatinine and renal pathology,a nomogram model was established for the first time in predicting the risk of decreased GFR in children with HSPN,which has great value in predicting the decreased renal function in children with HSPN.关键词
儿童/紫癜性肾炎/肾小球滤过率下降/列线图Key words
child/Henoch-Schönlein purpura nephritis/decreased glomerular filtration rate/nomogram分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
李艳,袁婷婷,周苏芹,王青青,陆倩,杨焕丹,商巧雨,张锐锋..紫癜性肾炎患儿肾小球滤过率下降风险预测及列线图的建立[J].中国实用儿科杂志,2025,40(5):407-412,6.基金项目
徐州市科技局重点研发计划医药卫生面上项目(KC23201) （KC23201）
