长江科学院院报2025，Vol.42Issue(6)：44-50,59,8.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20240374
1981-2020年高黎贡山南段极端降水特性及演变趋势
Characteristics and Evolution Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Southern Gaoligong Mountain from 1981 to 2020
摘要
Abstract
[Objectives]To reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of extreme precipitation from 1981 to 2020 in the southern Gaoligong Mountain(S-GLG)and explore its relationship with strong ENSO events,this study analyses the trends of five extreme precipitation indices(EPIs)and their responses to large-scale sea surface temperature a-nomalies,such as the Oceanic Niño Index(ONI)and the Dipole Mode Index(DMI),providing a scientific basis for regional drought risk assessment and water resource management.[Methods]Using daily precipitation data from 8 meteorological stations,this study selected five EPIs:total wet-day precipitation(PTOT),maximum con-secutive dry days(CDD),maximum 1-day precipitation(RX1day),number of heavy precipitation days(R10mm),and extreme precipitation intensity(SDII).Innovative trend analysis(ITA)and linear regression(LR)were used to analyze long-term trends,and composite analysis was employed to examine the impact of ENSO events(represented by ONI and DMI)on extreme precipitation.Seasonal-scale correlation analysis was conducted to distinguish the response differences between the western and eastern slopes.[Results]The results showed that except for a significant increase in CDD(3.9 d/(10 a)on the western slope and 0.7 d/(10 a)on the eastern slope),other EPIs exhibited decreasing trends,with PTOT decreasing most significantly(39.9 mm/(10 a)on the western slope and 46.1 mm/(10 a)on the eastern slope),indicating an intensifying drought risk in the region.ENSO correlations revealed weak to moderate negative relationships between extreme precipitation and ONI(p＜0.1).During positive ONI phases(El Niño-like conditions),there was a higher probability of reduced precipitation during the rainy season.Additionally,the influence of DMI showed phase-dependent negative correlations,but with lower statistical significance.Regional seasonal differences were evident.The western slope showed a stronger nega-tive correlation between rainy-season PTOT and CWD and simultaneous ONI during summer and autumn(r=-0.46 to-0.52),while the eastern slope exhibited a more pronounced lagged response of corresponding indices to ONI in the previous autumn and winter(r=-0.33 to-0.38),potentially indicating that topography may modulate the transmission of ENSO signals across the region.[Conclusions]The southern Gaoligong Mountain is experiencing a"drying"trend in extreme precipitation,with ENSO events(especially ONI)serving as key driving factors.Innova-tive findings include:(1)the first quantitative demonstration of seasonal response differences to ENSO between the western and eastern slopes,providing key parameters for improving local climate models;and(2)the proposal that early-stage ONI tracking may serve as a potential indicator for regional extreme precipitation prediction.These re-search findings provide important guidance for developing climate adaptation strategies in the region of Hengduan Mountains.关键词
极端降水/演变趋势/创新趋势分析/线性回归分析/复合分析/ONI/关联/高黎贡山Key words
extreme precipitation/evolution trends/innovative trend analysis/linear regression analysis/compos-ite analysis/ONI/correlation/Gaoligong Mountain分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
陈文华,张宁,冯春红,赵伟华,杨敏..1981-2020年高黎贡山南段极端降水特性及演变趋势[J].长江科学院院报,2025,42(6):44-50,59,8.基金项目
怒江下游山地农业生态系统云南省野外科学观测研究站项目(202305AM340031) （202305AM340031）
