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Projection of extreme climate change in the Asian arid region and the Tibetan Plateau in the early and middle 21st century based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

Yankun Sun Rui Zhu Tao Wang

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2025，Vol.18Issue(3)：53-58,6.

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）2025，Vol.18Issue(3)：53-58,6.DOI:10.1016/j.aosl.2024.100534

Projection of extreme climate change in the Asian arid region and the Tibetan Plateau in the early and middle 21st century based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

Yankun Sun ¹Rui Zhu ²Tao Wang³

作者信息

1. College of Resources and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,China
2. College of Resources and Environment,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin,China||Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China
3. Climate Change Research Center and Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China
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摘要

Abstract

近年来,随着全球变暖,大部分地区极端气候事件的风险都有所增加.作为中国一带一路建设核心区域的亚洲干旱区和青藏高原区域面临着严峻的极端气候风险.本文利用NEX-GDDP-CMIP6数据预估了未来21世纪早期(2026-2045)和中期(2041-2060)不同排放情景下亚洲干旱区和青藏高原相较气候参考期(1995-2014)极端高温指数和极端降水指数的变化.预估结果显示,在不同排放情景下极端高温指数和极端降水指数都有所上升,且在SSP5-8.5情景下增长最多,其中NEX-GDDP-CMIP6不同模式对极端高温指数的模拟一致性高于极端降水指数.21世纪中期相比早期极端高温指数和极端降水指数的增长更加严重.

关键词

极端降水指数/极端高温指数/亚洲干旱区/青藏高原/NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

Key words

Extreme high precipitation/Extreme high temperature/Asian arid region/Tibetan plateau/NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

引用本文复制引用

Yankun Sun,Rui Zhu,Tao Wang..Projection of extreme climate change in the Asian arid region and the Tibetan Plateau in the early and middle 21st century based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6[J].大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）,2025,18(3):53-58,6.

基金项目

This research was supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program[grant number 2019QZKK0101]. （）

大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

ISSN：1674-2834

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