电力信息与通信技术2025，Vol.23Issue(6)：15-22,8.DOI:10.16543/j.2095-641x.electric.power.ict.2025.06.03
基于STL-ARIMA组合模型的低轨卫星钟差特性分析与预测
Characteristics Analysis and Prediction of Low-earth Orbit Satellite Clock Bias Based on the STL-ARIMA Hybrid Model
摘要
Abstract
When using LEO satellites to enhance the positioning of GNSS,it is necessary to predict the precise LEO clock bias over a certain period.However,the prediction accuracy of USO currently carried on most LEO satellites is relatively poor.In this paper,the USO clock bias data measured by the GRACE-FO satellite is used.The original clock bias data is processed to remove outliers using an improved MAD method.The STL method is then applied to extract the trend,seasonal,and residual components of the sequence.The residual component is modeled using the ARIMA method to achieve the prediction of the LEO satellite clock bias sequence.The impact of forecast duration on prediction accuracy is also assessed.For GRACE-C,the prediction accuracy reaches 0.108 ns for a forecast duration of 5 minutes,while for GRACE-D,the prediction accuracy reaches 0.121 ns for the same forecast duration.关键词
LEO卫星/超稳定振荡器/卫星钟差预测/STL分解/ARIMA模型Key words
LEO satellites/ultra-stable oscillators/satellite clock bias prediction/STL decomposition/ARIMA model分类
测绘与仪器引用本文复制引用
胡云龙,郝飞宇,王潜心,李萌萌,程彤,高明..基于STL-ARIMA组合模型的低轨卫星钟差特性分析与预测[J].电力信息与通信技术,2025,23(6):15-22,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2020YFA0713502) （2020YFA0713502）
广西科技基地和人才专项(桂科AD25069103). （桂科AD25069103）
