工业技术经济2025，Vol.44Issue(7)：141-150,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-910X.2025.07.014
人口变动与技术创新对能源消费的影响
The Effect of Demographic Change and Technological Innovation on Energy Consumption
摘要
Abstract
Accelerating the transformation and upgrading of energy consumption in China is a key path to achieving the"dual carbon"goal.It depends not only on the transformation of energy consumption patterns in the production and residential sectors,but also on energy technology innovation.This article constructs a PVAR model and empirically tests the impact of population chan-ges and technological innovation on energy consumption using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2023.The results showed that popu-lation change is an important influencing factor on energy consumption and carbon emissions.The natural population growth rate is positively correlated with energy consumption,while the elderly dependency ratio is negatively correlated with energy consumption.However,the former has a greater impact on energy consumption than the latter.Technological innovation a two-way effect on ene-rgy consumption,showing heterogeneous impacts across time in favor of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,which is conducive to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.The superimposed effect of population changes and technological innovation on energy con-sumption mainly depends on the spillover and substitution effects of technological innovation,as well as the path dependence of popu-lation and economic growth on technological innovation.The policy inspiration is to comprehensively implement policies to promote moderate and balanced population growth,transform development models,promote energy revolution and technological innovation,achieve the transformation and upgrading of energy consumption structure,and achieve the"dual carbon"goal as soon as possible.关键词
人口变动/技术创新/能源消费/PVAR模型/碳达峰/碳中和/双向效应/叠加效应Key words
demographic change/technological innovation/energy consumption/PVAR model/peak CO2 emissions/carbon neutrality/bidirectional effects/additive effects分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
柳如眉,唐璐,柳清瑞..人口变动与技术创新对能源消费的影响[J].工业技术经济,2025,44(7):141-150,10.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目"基本养老保险全国统筹缴费与给付协调均衡研究"(项目编号:20CJY016) （项目编号:20CJY016）
国家社会科学基金项目"东北人口变动趋势及其对东北经济振兴的影响研究"(项目编号:20BRK008) （项目编号:20BRK008）
辽宁省教育厅重点攻关项目"辽宁省提升维护国家'五大安全'能力的对策研究"(项目编号:LJKZR20220013) （项目编号:LJKZR20220013）
辽宁省社会科学规划基金青年项目"资源依赖视角下新质生产力对辽宁绿色经济增长的影响研究"(项目编号:L24CJY023). （项目编号:L24CJY023）
