甘蔗糖业2025，Vol.54Issue(3)：48-57,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-9695.2025.03.006
基于稠密气象观测站资料的河池市精细化甘蔗低温冻害分级风险区划研究
Fine-grained Graded Risk Zoning of Sugarcane Low-temperature Frost Damage in Hechi City based on Dense Meteorological Observation Data
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the spatiotemporal characteristics and risk distribution of sugarcane chilling and freezing injuries in Hechi City,daily minimum temperature data from 206 meteorological stations(including national meteorological stations and regional automatic stations)in Hechi City from 2015 to 2024 was used in the study and the main occurrence periods of low-temperature freeze injury in sugarcane based on cold damage indicators were analyzed.By establishing two sets of regression models based on national meteorological stations(N)and a combination of national and regional meteorological stations(N+R)for extreme minimum temperatures and geographical factors,refined zoning of low-temperature cold damage was conducted for both data sources.The results were comparatively validated by using actual disaster data from the Bodong sugarcane-growing area.The results showed that:①The periods with highest extreme low-temperature frequency in Hechi City were December 15th～24th(26.2%)and January 21st～30th of the following year(22.3%);②The zoning results based on N+R data showed that the spatial distribution of freeze damage generally exhibited a north-south gradient of severity,with severely affected areas occupying the largest proportion,followed by moderately affected areas,and disaster-free areas being least common.Local damage intensity showed significant elevation dependence,with higher altitude corresponding to increased disaster severity;③The zoning results based on N+R data demonstrated high consistency with actual disaster distribution,and demonstrated significantly better performance than the N-based zoning results.These findings provide scientific reference for sugarcane disaster prevention and mitigation strategies.关键词
甘蔗/低温冻害/高频时段/回归模型/分级风险Key words
Sugarcane/Chilling and freezing injuries/High-frequency periods/Regression model/Graded risk分类
农业科学引用本文复制引用
刘芳,陈燕丽,覃志刚,李先平..基于稠密气象观测站资料的河池市精细化甘蔗低温冻害分级风险区划研究[J].甘蔗糖业,2025,54(3):48-57,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金地区科学基金"无人机多模态遥感和作物模型结合甘蔗糖分估算研究"(42465010) （42465010）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金"高光谱遥感与地面观测数据结合的区域甘蔗糖分估算研究"(42105175) （42105175）
