河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.27Issue(3)：62-75,14.DOI:10.13320/j.cnki.jauhe.2025.0030
淮河生态经济带粮食系统韧性动态演进、区域差异及障碍因子诊断
Dynamic Evolution,Regional Disparities,and Diagnostic Analysis of Obstacle Factors in the Resilience of the Grain System within the Huai River Ecological Economic Belt
摘要
Abstract
Enhancing the resilience of the grain system in the Huai River Ecological Economic Belt is of significant importance for ensuring food security in China.This study focuses on the Huai River Ecological Economic Belt as a research area,employing methods such as Moran's I index and Dagum Gini coeffi-cient to explore the dynamic evolution characteristics and sources of regional differences in grain system resilience across 28 cities from 2003 to 2022.Additionally,an obstacle degree model is utilized to diag-nose factors that hinder grain system resilience.The findings reveal that the level of resilience within the grain system of the Huai River Ecological Economic Belt has shown a gradual upward trend over recent years;however,overall resilience remains relatively low,indicating substantial room for improvement.Spatially,areas with higher levels of grain system resilience are primarily concentrated in northwestern cit-ies such as Zhoukou and Nanyang within the central-western inland rising region,while lower-resili-ence areas are mainly found in Huaibei City located in southern part of the northern Huaihai economic zone and cities like Suizhou and Xiaogan situated in southwestern inland rising regions.In terms of spatial evolution,there exists a notable spatial correlation regarding grain system resilience within this ecological economic belt,characterized by"high-high"and"low-low"spatial agglomeration patterns.The dis-parities between different regions concerning grain system resilience have significantly narrowed down over time,exhibiting a convergence trend;intra-regional differences along with super-variable density serve as primary sources contributing to these regional disparities.Key hindering factors affecting improvements in grain system resilience include fluctuations in food prices,sown area for grains,and pesticide usage per unit area sown.To enhance the level of resiliency within this agricultural framework,it is essential to re-fine price protection mechanisms,establish comprehensive land protection systems,continuously promote green agriculture practices,and strengthen agricultural technological equipment.关键词
淮河生态经济带/粮食系统韧性/时空演变/区域差异/障碍度Key words
Huai River Ecological Economic Belt/resilience of grain systems/spatiotemporal evolution/re-gional disparities/degree of barriers分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郭利京,张新龙..淮河生态经济带粮食系统韧性动态演进、区域差异及障碍因子诊断[J].河北农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,27(3):62-75,14.基金项目
国家社科重大项目:"超大规模人口国家农业农村现代化建设研究"(编号:23&ZD109). （编号:23&ZD109）
