环境保护科学2025，Vol.51Issue(3)：158-167,10.DOI:10.16803/j.cnki.issn.1004-6216.202405012
基于RSEI与CA-Markov模型的生态环境质量动态评价及预测
Dynamic assessment and prediction of ecological environment quality in Tongren based on RSEI and CA-Markov
摘要
Abstract
Tongren is located in the northeastern part of Guizhou Province,and its typical karst landform makes its ecological environment extremely fragile.Based on the remote sensing,meteorological,and land use data of Tongren City in 2003,2008,2013,2018,and 2023,this study adopted the principal component analysis method and geographic detector to analyze the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of ecological environment quality and its driving factors,and combined with the CA-Markov model to simulate and predict the RSEI in 2028 and 2033,which can provide a scientific basis for the ecological protection planning of Tongren and other karst mountain cities.The results showed that the average RSEI value of Tongren increased from 0.531 in 2003 to 0.685 in 2023,generally showing a fluctuating upward trend,and the area with improved ecological environment quality was much larger than that with deteriorated quality.The interaction of dual factors was greater than the effect of a single factor,in which land use type was the strongest single-factor driving force for RSEI in Tongren,and land use type and temperature were the strongest interactive driving forces.In the future,the trend of ecological environment quality deterioration in Tongren might be slightly greater than that of improvement,especially in the rapidly developing eastern part of the city.关键词
生态环境质量/RSEI/地理探测器/CA-Markov模型/铜仁市Key words
ecological environment quality/RSEI/geographic detector/CA-Markov model/Tongren分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
冉红玲,向楠,吕春艳,胡萍,蔡成瑶,李婧..基于RSEI与CA-Markov模型的生态环境质量动态评价及预测[J].环境保护科学,2025,51(3):158-167,10.基金项目
贵州省科技基金项目(黔科合基础20181158) （黔科合基础20181158）
贵州省气象局科研业务项目(黔气科登[2024]04-06号) （黔气科登[2024]04-06号）
