交通信息与安全2025，Vol.43Issue(1)：61-73,13.DOI:10.3963/j.jssn.1674-4861.2025.01.006
考虑时间不稳定性的夜间行人-机动车事故严重程度致因分析
Analysis of Influencing Factors for Nighttime Pedestrian-vehicle Crash Injury Severity Considering Temporal Instability
摘要
Abstract
Nighttime pedestrian-vehicle crashes exhibit significantly higher injury severity than daytime crashes due to visibility limitations and other factors.To accurately identify influencing factors,this study develops a hybrid model integrating a random parameters Logit model with heterogeneity in means and variances and a random forest(RF)algorithm based on SHapley Additive exPlanation(SHAP),i.e.RF-SHAP,using crash data from 2017 to 2022.The log-likelihood ratio test confirms temporal instability in the dataset,necessitating separate models for 2017-2019,2020,2021,and 2022 with calculated average marginal effects for significant variables.Results demonstrate that random effects exist for drinking pedestrians(2017-2019),ambulance required(2020),local street crashes(2021),and 48-56 km/h speed limits(2022),with their mean/variance influenced by traffic control and road classi-fication.Drinking pedestrians,pedestrians aged over 45 to 60 years,driver injuries,vehicle types(pickup trucks and trucks),divided roadways,speed limits(32-40,48-56,64-72 km/h),weekends,and winter conditions have be-gun to exhibit statistically significant effects on nighttime pedestrian-vehicle crashes in recent years.In addition,the RF-SHAP algorithm quantifies heterogeneous contributions of all sub-variables within four random parameters to crash severity.Policy implications highlight three priorities:addressing pedestrian drinking behavior,enhancing nighttime crash prevention on expressways and arterial routes,and establishing appropriate speed limits while avoid-ing excessively high or low values.关键词
交通安全/夜间事故/事故严重程度分析/均值和方差异质性随机参数Logit模型/SHAP/时间不稳定性Key words
traffic safety/nighttime crash/crash injury severity analysis/random parameter Logit with heterogene-ity in means and variances/SHAP/temporal instability分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
唐玉洁,焦朋朋,王健宇,李汝鉴..考虑时间不稳定性的夜间行人-机动车事故严重程度致因分析[J].交通信息与安全,2025,43(1):61-73,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52172301)、北京市社会科学基金重点项目(21GLA010)、北京建筑大学研究生创新项目(PG2024054)资助 （52172301）
