林业经济问题2025，Vol.45Issue(3)：311-324,14.DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20250189
信任对林地流转契约稳定性的影响
The Impact of Trust on the Stability of Forestland Circulation Contracts
摘要
Abstract
⑴Background——Forestland circulation contracts have long faced the dilemma of high default rate and low stability.Trust plays an important role in the selection and stability of forestland circulation contracts,but the internal mechanism of its influence remains unclear.Existing studies have explored the impacts of institutions and cost-benefit on the forestland circulation behaviors of the forest farmers.However,few studies have explored the impact of trust on the decision-making of both parties in forestland circulation. ⑵ Methods——Based on the evolutionary game theory,this paper first constructed a dynamic game model between"new-type of forestry operating entities-forest farmers",categorized trust into cost effect,time effect and scale effect,and discussed the impacts of the three effects of trust on the dynamic decision-making of both parties of the game.Then,a systematic analysis was conducted through numerical simulation on the dynamic evo-lution process of the behavioral choices of both parties and its influencing factors to reveal the mechanism by which the three effects of trust influence the stability of forestland circulation contracts.Finally,it put forward the policy suggestions for enhancing the stability of forestland circulation contracts. ⑶ Results——First,the cost effect of trust can effectively reduce the negotiation costs of forestland circu-lation,the time effect of trust can generate long-term returns by extending the duration of the forestland circula-tion contracts,and the scale effect of trust can create economies of scale by expanding the area of forestland cir-culation.That is,these three effects of trust can enhance the stability of forestland circulation contracts.Second,a synergistic effect exists between government subsidies and trust levels.Increasing government subsidies will en-hance the equilibrium probability of concluding forestland circulation contracts.At a low level of trust,relying solely on government subsidies may lead to a"policy dependence trap".Third,management capacity is a core factor for the stability of forestland circulation contracts.The increase in net income per unit area will significantly enhance the probability of new-type of forestry operating entities adopting circulation strategies,while simultane-ously simultaneously reduce their reliance on government subsidies. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——Based on the above research conclusions,the following policy sug-gestions are proposed:First,improve the trust incentive mechanism for the conclusion of long-term forestland cir-culation contracts.Promote the contract form of"installment rents+income dividends",and link the rent pay-ment with the operational cycle.Provide certain policy support to both parties of the long-term contracts.Second,enhence the transparency of forestland transaction information.Integrate the forestland circulation information platform with the local forestland and land resources data platform to reduce the cost of information search.Pro-mote the large-scale circulation of forestland to enhance the cost effect and scale effect of trust.Third,implement a combined policy of"trust cultivation+dynamic subsidies".Promote the construction of the rural credit sys-tems,encourage community-embedded organizations to serve as trust intermediaries,and design a differentiated dynamic subsidy mechanism.Fourth,enhance the level of socialized services in forestry and continuously strengthen the supply capacity of forestry-related social services,including technology extension,production sup-port,and financial assistance.关键词
林地流转/新型林业经营主体/农户/信任/演化博弈Key words
forestland circulation/new-type of forestry operating entities/forest farmers/trust/evolutionary game分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
侯一蕾,吕佳谕,张涵,申津羽..信任对林地流转契约稳定性的影响[J].林业经济问题,2025,45(3):311-324,14.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJC630055)、国家自然科学基金青年项目(71903058) （19YJC630055）
