排灌机械工程学报2025，Vol.43Issue(6)：604-611,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.23.0267
基于FLUS-Markov模型的宝鸡峡灌区土地利用变化预测
Prediction of land use change in Baojixia Irrigation District based on FLUS-Markov model
摘要
Abstract
In order to clarify the changing trend of land use types in irrigated areas,the land use data with 30 m annual resolution from 1985 to 2022 was used to analyze the changes in land use pattern of Baojixia Irrigation District based on land use transfer matrix,dynamics and comprehensive index.Com-bined with the FLUS-Markov model,the changing trend of land use types in 2035 was predicted.The results show that the land use type of Baojixia Irrigation District is mainly cultivated land,followed by construction land.From 1985 to 2022,407.776 km2 of cultivated lands area is decreased,and 428.462 km2 of construction lands area is increased.The FLUS-Markov model is used to simulate the land use data in 2015 and compared with the current results in 2015,for which the Kappa coefficient is 85.98%,indicating that the model can be used to predict the land use type in Baojixia Irrigation District.It is predicted that by 2035,the cultivated land area will shrink to 1 785.720 km2,while the construction land area will increase to 844.160 km2.The simulation results of this model can provide a strong refe-rence for water resource management and optimal allocation of irrigation water resources in Baojixia Irri-gation District,thereby promoting the realization of sustainable development of the irrigation district.关键词
宝鸡峡灌区/土地利用变化/土地利用转移矩阵/FLUS-Markov模型/土地利用类型预测Key words
Baojixia Irrigation District/land use change/land use transfer matrix/FLUS-Markov model/land use type prediction分类
农业科学引用本文复制引用
魏婷婷,张尧,马其浩,侯健哲,降亚楠..基于FLUS-Markov模型的宝鸡峡灌区土地利用变化预测[J].排灌机械工程学报,2025,43(6):604-611,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51409219) （51409219）
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0400305,2016YFC0401306) （2016YFC0400305,2016YFC0401306）
陕西省水利科技计划项目(2019slkj-14) （2019slkj-14）
