世界竹藤通讯2025，Vol.23Issue(3)：35-47,13.DOI:10.12168/sjzttx.2025.04.17.002
2种大熊猫主食竹潜在分布区预测及对大熊猫保护的意义
Prediction of Potential Distribution Areas of Two Staple Bamboo Species for Giant Pandas and its Significance for Giant Panda Conservation
摘要
Abstract
Bashania fangiana and Yushania brevipaniculata are two main bamboo species consumed by the giant panda(Ailuropoda melanoleuca),and their growth conditions will directly affect the quality of the giant panda's habitat.With the intensification of global warming,the distribution changes of these two bamboo species may determine the future survival of the giant panda.In this study,28 valid distribution points of B.fangiana and 31 valid distribution points of Y.brevipaniculata were obtained through literature and specimen record information.By using the Biomod2 software package,an ensembled model was constructed to predict the potential distribution areas in China and changing trends of these two bamboo species under current(1970-2000s)and future(2050s:2041-2060s;2070s:2061-2080s;2090s:2081-2100s)climate change scenarios.The results show that in both current and future climate scenarios,Sichuan Province is the most suitable area for the growth of B.fangiana and Y.brevipaniculata in China,and both bamboo species have large distribution areas in the five major mountain ranges of the giant panda's habitat.The total suitable area for B.fangiana shows a slight decreasing trend,while that for Y.brevipaniculata shows an increasing trend.In the future,the suitable habitats for the two bamboo species will shift mainly to the northwest of Sichuan and the southeast of Xizang.Moreover,the centroids of the suitable habitats for each bamboo species will generally move towards the northwest direction.The dominant environmental factors for the two bamboo species are the same,but the importance values of each factor are different.Annual temperature range(bio7),mean temperature of the warmest quarter(bio10),and precipitation of the wettest quarter(bio16)are the three environmental factors with the highest importance values for both bamboo species.The results of this study have great meanings for management and introduction of staple bamboos as well as habitat management for the giant panda.关键词
大熊猫主食竹/冷箭竹/短锥玉山竹/Biomod2模型/潜在分布区/气候变化Key words
staple-food bamboo of giant panda/Bashania fangiana/Yushania brevipaniculata/Biomod2 model/potential distribution area/climate change引用本文复制引用
李涛琴,张玉霄,张书东..2种大熊猫主食竹潜在分布区预测及对大熊猫保护的意义[J].世界竹藤通讯,2025,23(3):35-47,13.基金项目
云南省高层次人才培养计划青年拔尖人才专项(YNWR-QNBJ-2019-148). （YNWR-QNBJ-2019-148）
