天然气工业2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：31-42,12.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2025.05.003
中国天然气开发形势与远景展望
Natural gas development in China:Present situation and prospect
摘要
Abstract
As the global energy structure transits faster towards green and low-carbon energy sources,natural gas,as a representative low-carbon green energy source,will play a crucial role continuously in the transition process.In order to further clarify the situations and prospects of natural gas development in China,this paper summarizes the current characteristics of global natural gas development.Then,the natural gas development history of CNPC(China's largest natural gas producer),resource status,and exploration and development potential in China are dissected.Finally,the nationwide natural gas development prospects are analyzed and forecast by means of detailed case analysis,scenario analysis and overall forecasting.The following research results are obtained.First,the natural gas resources across China are lowly proved.It is predicted that the newly proven reserves of conventional gas,tight gas,shale gas and coalbed methane(coal-rock gas)will be nearly twice the current proven reserves of natural gas by 2060.Improving the proportion of proven natural gas reserves is fundamental for the long-term development of natural gas.Second,the new economically recoverable reserves of natural gas by 2060 can reach nearly 2.5 times the current remaining economically recoverable reserves.The continuous improvement of natural gas recovery is crucial to the long-term stable production of natural gas.Third,China's natural gas production will exceed 3 000×108 m3 by 2030,reaching 3 750×108 m3 in 2045,and can remain stable until 2060.Fourth,the present global natural gas development is characterized by the green and low-carbon support of energy structure,the uneven distribution of reserves and production,unconventional resources being the principal supply,and constrant demand growth.In conclusion,the proposed target and direction analysis is objective and reasonable,and can provide reference for preparing macroscopic policies of natural gas development,studying natural gas development,planning long-term natural gas development in China and analyzing China's energy structure.关键词
世界天然气/能源结构转型/绿色低碳/中国天然气/开发形势/发展远景Key words
Global natural gas/Energy structure transition/Green and low-carbon/Natural gas in China/Development situation/Development prospect分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
贾爱林,王国亭,李易隆..中国天然气开发形势与远景展望[J].天然气工业,2025,45(5):31-42,12.基金项目
中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目"老气田'压舱石工程'关键技术研究与示范"(编号:2023YQX103)、中国石油天然气股份有限公司科学研究与技术开发项目"致密砂岩气藏提高采收率关键技术研究"(编号:2023ZZ25). （编号:2023YQX103）
