天然气工业2025，Vol.45Issue(5)：180-187,8.DOI:10.3787/j.issn.1000-0976.2025.05.016
中国页岩气剩余探明技术可采储量预测:灰色波形与灰色多维度模型结合
Prediction of China's remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas based on the combination of gray waveform and gray multi-dimension model
摘要
Abstract
With the rapid development of shale gas industry in recent years,shale gas has become one of the key forces to impel China's medium-and long-term energy structure adjustment and facilitate the process of carbon emission reduction.On the whole,China's shale gas industry is still in the early-middle stage of exploration,and the prediction of remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas can provide an important reference for the planning and high-quality growth of China's shale gas industry.In view of the current basic characteristics of"lean information"and"insufficient data"of China's shale gas industry,as well as the applicable conditions of gray theory system prediction model,this paper analyzes the development trend of China's remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas from the macroscopic perspective for the first time by using the gray multi-dimension prediction model GM(1.2)with the newly proved geological reserves of shale gas as the related factor variable.The following results are obtained.First,the introduction of weakening buffer operator enables the gray waveform prediction model to predict the future changing trend of China's newly proved geological reserves of shale gas more accurately.The prediction results indicate an overall growing trend of China's newly proved geological reserves of shale gas.Second,the prediction results of gray multi-dimension prediction model GM(1.2)show that China's remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves of shale gas will reach 8 679.2×108 m3 by 2027 and exceed 10 000×108 m3 by 2030,suggesting that China's shale gas industry has the foundation of high-quality growth.In conclusion,with the continuous efforts for"dual-carbon"goals,China's shale gas industry will remain the development trend of high speed and high quality under the dual effects of industrial policy support and exploration and development technological progress.关键词
页岩气/剩余探明技术可采储量/新增探明地质储量/灰色波形预测/GM(1.2)Key words
Shale gas/Remaining proved technologically recoverable reserves/Newly proved geological reserves/Gray waveform prediction/GM(1.2)分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
胥勇,王艳秋,潘艳,刘文庆..中国页岩气剩余探明技术可采储量预测:灰色波形与灰色多维度模型结合[J].天然气工业,2025,45(5):180-187,8.基金项目
黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目"黑龙江省'水—能源—粮食'纽带系统耦合协调发展评价与实现路径研究"(编号:21JYB139). （编号:21JYB139）
