水土保持学报2025，Vol.39Issue(3)：182-190,9.DOI:10.13870/j.cnki.stbcxb.2025.03.012
中国典型自然植被碳储量对气候变化的动态响应及驱动力分析
Dynamic Response and Driver Analysis of Carbon Storage in Typical Natural Vegetation over China under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To analyze the trends of vegetation carbon storage(VCS)and soil carbon storage(SCS)of natural vegetation across different climatic zones and the driving mechanisms of environmental factors on the changes of carbon storage,in order to provide a basis for the development of vegetation management strategies adapted to climate change in the study area.[Methods]By constructing a hybrid model based on the LPJ-GUESS model and the random forest method,the dynamic changes of VCS and SCS of typical natural vegetation in China from 1851 to 2100 were simulated,and the carbon storage dynamics were analyzed by combining the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimation method.[Results]1)The determination coefficients of VCS and SCS of natural vegetation simulated by the hybrid model were 0.83 and 0.61,respectively,and the root mean square errors(RMSEs)were 2.42 and 3.73 kg/m2,respectively,which could accurately capture the ecosystem carbon dynamics.2)Compared to the historical period,VCS,SCS and TCS in the whole study area were excepted to increase by 44.8%-88.1%,7.5%-13.4%,and 10.4%-19.8%by the end of this century,respectively,with the largest increase in the semi-arid plateau region.The increases under different SSPs climate scenarios followed the order of SSP119<SSP245<SSP585.3)Under different SSPs scenarios,VCS of natural vegetation increased significantly at a rate of 4.6-9.7 g/(m2·a),while the trend of changes in SCS was not significant.TCS increased significantly at a rate of 14.6 and 18.0 g/(m2·a)under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios,respectively.4)The degree of influence of environmental factors on carbon storage under different SSP scenarios followed the order of SSP119<SSP245<SSP585,with VCS being more sensitive to climate change than SCS.Precipitation was identified as the main driving factor enhancing the carbon sink function of typical natural vegetation in China.[Conclusions]The hybrid model can accurately characterize carbon storage changes.Precipitation is the key factor driving the enhancement of the carbon sink function of natural vegetation across China in the future,compared to temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration.关键词
气候变化/LPJ-GUESS/混合模型/碳储量Key words
climate change/LPJ-GUESS/hybrid model/carbon storage分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
吴阳,张杰琳,彭守璋..中国典型自然植被碳储量对气候变化的动态响应及驱动力分析[J].水土保持学报,2025,39(3):182-190,9.基金项目
第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究(2022QZKK0101) （2022QZKK0101）
国家自然科学基金项目(42401338,U2243226,42077451) （42401338,U2243226,42077451）
