中国农业科学2025，Vol.58Issue(11)：2118-2144,27.DOI:10.3864/j.issn.0578-1752.2025.11.005
全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整
The Possible Effects of Global Warming on Cropping Systems in China XV.Adjustment of China's Oil Crop Patterns to Adapt to Future Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Oil crops are important sources of edible vegetable oil and feed protein.Soybean,canola,and peanut are the three major oil crops of China.This study aimed to clarify the climate suitability,and high-stable yield of oil crops under future climate change,and to propose adjustment of crop patterns framework,provided a theoretical basis for improving the total oil production and ensuring the safety of grain and oil in China under the background of climate change.[Method]Based on the yield,climate factors and agricultural technological factors of three oil crops from 1981 to 2019,a random forest model was constructed to predict yield under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios from 2021 to 2060.Based on the crops'climate suitability and high-stable yield,a comprehensive suitable area was divided.Combined with the impact of climate change,a framework of crops'patterns adjustment to adapt to future climate change was proposed.Finally,the crops production,environment benefits and economic benefits before and after adjustment were clarified.[Result](1)From 1981 to 2019,the proportion of soybean,canola,and peanut planting areas in the region with suitable climate and high-stable yield was 11.6%,38.3%,and 46.0%,respectively.Future,the proportion of soybean planting area in this region will decrease,the proportion of canola will increase,and the proportion of peanuts will not change significantly.(2)After future adjustment,the planting area of soybean,canola and peanut will increase by 1.8×106-2.6×106 hm2,3.2×106-3.9×106 hm2 and 0.8×106-1.8×106 hm2,respectively.(3)The production of soybean,canola and peanut will increase by 140%,150%and 150%,respectively,while the self-sufficiency rate of oil crop will increase by 7.9%-13.0%.The negative impact of climate change on production will decrease by 1.0×106-1.8×106 t.The total amount of nitrogen fertilizer application and greenhouse gas emissions will decrease by 1.1×106-1.5×106 t and 9.7×106-12.7×106 t CO2-eq,respectively.The total economic benefits will increase by 0.3×105-0.4×105 million yuan.[Conclusion]Under future climate change,the framework of adjustment of crop patterns for oil crops based on the climate suitability,high-stable yield and climate change impacts could expand the planting area of oil crops,increase crops production,reduce the negative impact of climate change,reduce total nitrogen fertilizer use and greenhouse gas emissions,and increase economic benefits.关键词
气候变化/油料作物/气候适宜性/高产稳产性/种植布局调整Key words
climate change/oil crops/climate suitability/high and stable yield/adjustment of crop patterns引用本文复制引用
郭世博,张镇涛,郭尔静,赵锦,刘志娟,赵闯,杨晓光..全球气候变暖对中国种植制度的可能影响XV.适应未来气候变化的我国油料作物种植布局调整[J].中国农业科学,2025,58(11):2118-2144,27.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2019YFA0607402)、中国农业大学"2115 人才培育发展支持计划" （2019YFA0607402）
