中国当代儿科杂志2025，Vol.27Issue(6)：709-715,7.DOI:10.7499/j.issn.1008-8830.2412032
轮状病毒感染腹泻患儿心肌损伤的影响因素及预测模型的建立
Risk factors and development of a predictive model for myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea
冯丽平 1王小刚 1钮文思 1施金金 1王红英1
作者信息
- 1. 苏州市吴江区儿童医院/苏州大学附属儿童医院吴江院区儿内科,江苏 苏州 215200
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To investigate the incidence of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea,analyze its risk factors,and develop a predictive model for myocardial injury.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on 203 children diagnosed with rotavirus infection at the Suzhou Wujiang District Children's Hospital from January 2021 to December 2023.The children were divided into groups based on the presence or absence of myocardial injury.Basic information and laboratory indicators at admission were collected and compared between the two groups.LASSO regression was used to screen potential risk factors,followed by multivariate logistic regression to evaluate independent factors.A nomogram model was established and validated.Results Out of 203 children with rotavirus infection,53 cases(26.1%)showed myocardial injury.Age,severe dehydration,metabolic acidosis,red cell distribution width,and blood sodium were closely associated with myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea(P<0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the predictive model of myocardial injury was 0.841(95%CI:0.777-0.905),with a sensitivity of 73.6%and specificity of 85.3%.The model curve closely fit the ideal diagonal line.Decision curve analysis showed that using the model for prediction resulted in the highest net benefit when the probability threshold was 0.18-0.98.Conclusions The model developed in this study can predict the risk of myocardial injury in children with rotavirus-induced diarrhea.关键词
腹泻/轮状病毒/心肌损伤/多因素分析/列线图模型/儿童Key words
Diarrhea/Rotavirus/Myocardial injury/Multivariate analysis/Nomogram model/Child引用本文复制引用
冯丽平,王小刚,钮文思,施金金,王红英..轮状病毒感染腹泻患儿心肌损伤的影响因素及预测模型的建立[J].中国当代儿科杂志,2025,27(6):709-715,7.
