安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）2025，Vol.34Issue(3)：23-36,14.DOI:10.19747/j.cnki.1009-2463.2025.03.003
"双碳"目标下中国农业生态效率的时空分异与协同治理
Spatial-Temporal Differentiation and Collaborative Governance of China's Agricultural Ecological Efficiency under the"Dual Carbon"Goals:An Analysis Based on Super-Efficiency SBM and GWR
摘要
Abstract
Achieving China's carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals in high-quality agricultural development requires balancing productivity,economic growth,and environmental sustainability.This study employs agricultural ecological efficiency as the core indicator of green agricultural development.Using provincial panel data in China from 1990 to 2023,we construct a super-efficiency SBM model with undesirable outputs to assess efficiency levels.Furthermore,we integrate Geographically Weighted Regression and Random Forest methods to uncover the spatio-temporal differentiation pattern and its underlying driving mechanisms.Our findings reveal:agricultural ecological efficiency has risen slightly but remains uneven—higher in the east,lower in the west,and a decline in the central region,with an inverted U-shaped trend over time.The spatial spillover effects of industrialization and urbanization lead to significant negative environmental externalities.In contrast,large-scale farming,agricultural electrification,and technological investment are key drivers of efficiency improvement.The effectiveness of agricultural support policies varies by regional resource endowments;Key influencing factors display dynamic heterogeneity,with urbanization rates and rural electrification exhibiting"threshold effects,"wherein the direction of their impacts reverses as development stages progress.Accordingly,this paper proposes a differentiated governance framework:strengthening technological and institutional innovation in the east,correcting factor misallocation and improving large-scale operations in the central regions,and building ecological compensation and low-carbon mechanisms in the west.These insights offer new theoretical and policy tools for coordinating China's green agricultural transformation with the"dual carbon"goals.关键词
农业生态效率/影响因素/超效率SBM/地理加权回归/提升路径Key words
agricultural ecological efficiency/influencing factors/super-efficiency SBM/geographically weighted regression/improvement paths分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
鄢贞,董敬轩,黄远茂.."双碳"目标下中国农业生态效率的时空分异与协同治理[J].安徽农业大学学报（社会科学版）,2025,34(3):23-36,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委员会国际合作项目"中国农业绿色转型与高质量发展的路径与战略研究"(72161147001) （72161147001）
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大专项项目"中国式农民现代化与农民发展理论创新研究"(2024JZDZ062) （2024JZDZ062）
