弹道学报2025，Vol.37Issue(2)：49-59,11.DOI:10.12115/ddxb.2024.05004
滑翔制导炮弹多阶段全弹道不确定性传播方法
Uncertainty Propagation Method for Multi-stage Full Trajectory of Glide-Guided Projectiles
摘要
Abstract
Subject to the limitations of confined projectile spatial dimensions and diminutive control surfaces,glide-guided projectiles are characterized by diminished lift-to-drag ratios,constrained maneuverability,and compromised disturbance rejection capabilities,thereby rendering them highly susceptible to intricate external stochastic perturbations.To unravel the propagation dynamics of uncertainties within the stochastic nonlinear systems governing glide projectiles and to quantify the sensitivity of multiphase full-trajectory behaviors to heterogeneous stochastic uncertainties,this study formulates a high-fidelity multidimensional dynamical model that rigorously encapsulates uncertainties inherent to system modeling approximations,initial state variabilities,aerodynamic coefficient fluctuations,and meteorological parameter stochasticity.Employing a Latin hypercube sampling methodology,a composite uncertainty quantification and propagation framework is devised,synergizing non-intrusive spectral polynomial chaos expansion with stochastic response surface methodology.The efficacy of this framework is empirically validated through high-dimensional uncertainty propagation simulations spanning the entire projectile trajectory,with rigorous benchmarking against Monte Carlo simulation(MCS)outcomes.Numerical experiments demonstrate that the integrated trajectory exhibits markedly amplified sensitivity to aerodynamic parameter uncertainties relative to perturbations in booster propulsion mean thrust and atmospheric density profiles,with the former dominating terminal precision degradation.Moreover,the proposed framework attains computational acceleration exceeding conventional MCS by orders of magnitude while preserving statistical fidelity,thereby circumventing the curse of dimensionality endemic to high-order uncertainty propagation analyses.These findings furnish a foundational paradigm for probabilistic trajectory optimization and resilience enhancement in next-generation precision-guided munitions.关键词
滑翔制导炮弹/不确定性因素/全弹道/多项式混沌展开/不确定性量化分析Key words
gliding guided projectile/uncertainty factors/full trajectory/polynomial chaos expansion/quantitative analysis of uncertainty分类
武器工业引用本文复制引用
赵童伸,陈琦,宋党帅,尹秋霖..滑翔制导炮弹多阶段全弹道不确定性传播方法[J].弹道学报,2025,37(2):49-59,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52202475) （52202475）
