干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(7)：1206-1219,14.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.471
生态系统服务及其权衡/协同关系多情景模拟
Ecological services and their trade-offs/synergistic relationships in multi-scenario simulations:A case of the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin is a crucial ecological barrier in China.Predicting future trade-offs and synergies among ecosystem services is essential for effective ecosystem management.This study employs system dynamics,a patch-level land use change simulation model,and root mean square deviation analy-sis to explore the trade-offs between the supply and demand of ecosystem services,including water yield,soil conservation,and carbon sequestration,across five scenarios for 2030:natural development,economic develop-ment,ecological protection,comprehensive development,and carbon peak scenario.The findings reveal the fol-lowing.(1)Under the economic development scenario,the maximum water yield supply reaches 73.27 mm,whereas the demand for water yield and carbon sequestration is lowest in the ecological protection scenario,at 59.89 mm and 14.92 t C·hm-2,respectively.(2)The trade-offs between water yield and soil conservation as well as between water yield and carbon sequestration are minimized in the ecological protection scenario,indicating low synergy intensity for both the supply and demand of these services.(3)In the ecological protection and car-bon peak scenarios,the supply-demand ratio for water yield and carbon sequestration is positive,whereas the sup-ply-demand ratios for soil conservation are consistent across all scenarios.Therefore,future development within the Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin should prioritize optimizing land use,balancing ecological safety with economic and social progress,achieving a"carbon peak",and establishing a foundation for the goal of"car-bon neutrality".关键词
生态系统服务/权衡/协同/情景模拟/PLUS模型/黄河流域山西段Key words
ecosystem services/trade-offs/synergies/scenario simulation/PLUS model/Shanxi section of the Yellow River Basin引用本文复制引用
徐铭璟,段宝玲,冯强,吕萌..生态系统服务及其权衡/协同关系多情景模拟[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(7):1206-1219,14.基金项目
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(22YJAZH018) （22YJAZH018）
山西省基础研究计划资助项目(20210302123481) （20210302123481）
地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室开放课题(2022-KF-02)资助 （2022-KF-02）
