干旱区地理2025，Vol.48Issue(7)：1267-1278,12.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2024.431
多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析
Identification of county shrinkage and its driving factors in agro-pastoral zone of north China from a multidimensional perspective
摘要
Abstract
This study identifies the types of county shrinkage in the agro-pastoral zone of north China from 2000 to 2020 using a shrinkage degree model and multi-index comprehensive evaluation method based on the three di-mensions of population,economy,and space.Furthermore,it also explores the driving factors of county shrink-age from a spatial differentiation perspective,employing a multiscale geographically weighted regression model.The results show the following.(1)Population shrinkage is the most severe,exhibiting a growth rate of 64.15%and the widest geographic coverage;this is followed by spatial shrinkage and economic shrinkage,with growth rates of 30.19%and 7.55%,respectively.(2)In terms of spatial and temporal evolution,overall county shrinkage,along with population,economic,and spatial shrinkage in individual dimensions,is primarily concentrated in the northeast of China and Inner Mongolia,indicating a trend of"encircling from the edge to the centre".(3)Regard-ing the interplay of different dimensions,county shrinkage types are gradually becoming multi-dimensional:from 2000 to 2010,only unidimensional population shrinkage was observed in the agro-pastoral zone of north China,whereas from 2010 to 2020,shrinkage types diversified,exhibiting both two-and three-dimensional shrinkage,predominantly characterized by population-space shrinkage.(4)The key driving factors influencing county shrinkage in this region include local financial expenditures,educational resources,and fixed asset investments,exhibiting significant spatial variation.Therefore,implementing zonal management is crucial for achieving sus-tainable county development.This study enriches research perspectives on urban shrinkage and provides scientif-ic references and theoretical support for enhancing the vitality of counties in the agro-pastoral zone of north Chi-na,ultimately contributing to high-quality urban development.关键词
城市收缩/多维视角/生态安全/农牧交错带/中国北方Key words
urban shrinkage/multi-dimensional perspectives/ecological security/agro-pastoral zone/north China引用本文复制引用
罗小梅,文琦,施琳娜,吴昕燕,安丰平,王振亭..多维视角下中国北方农牧交错带县域收缩识别及影响因素分析[J].干旱区地理,2025,48(7):1267-1278,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(42271221) （42271221）
国家重点研发计划课题(2020YFA0608404)资助 （2020YFA0608404）
