国际石油经济2025，Vol.33Issue(6)：26-36,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7298.2025.06.004
新能源发电对中国天然气行业的影响
Impact of new energy power generation on China's natural gas industry
池立勋 1王秋麟 2郝迎鹏 1王军 1罗亚男 3路遥3
作者信息
- 1. 中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院
- 2. 国家管网集团北京管道有限公司
- 3. 中国石油天然气股份有限公司天然气销售分公司
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global climate change and the low-carbon transition,China is rapidly scaling up its deployment of renewable energy sources,particularly wind and solar power.While wind and photovoltaic generation provide critical support for achieving clean and low-carbon energy goals,but their randomness,intermittency,fluctuation significantly increase grid peaking pressures.Given its fast ramp-up capability and high peaking capacity,natural gas power generation is increasingly serving as a key balancing mechanism to mitigate the fluctuations in renewable energy output.This paper examines the implications of the rapid growth of renewable energy generation for the natural gas industry from both qualitative and quantitative perspectives and quantitatively assesses the effects on natural gas supply-demand dynamics and operational stability across such four time scales as annual,monthly,intra-week,and intra-day by constructing an hourly power and electricity balance model.The results show that the volatility of wind power and photovoltaic power generation has an obvious pulling effect on natural gas demand,while posing serious challenges to natural gas production and pipeline network scheduling,and the electrification trends and stranded assets will have a far-reaching impact on the natural gas industry.It proposes such suggestions as improving the peak shaving mechanism,optimize the pricing system,and promoting technological transition and equipment upgrading.关键词
风力发电/太阳能发电/天然气发电/调峰/电量平衡/天然气需求Key words
wind power generation/solar power generation/natural gas power generation/peak shaving/power balance/natural gas demands分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
池立勋,王秋麟,郝迎鹏,王军,罗亚男,路遥..新能源发电对中国天然气行业的影响[J].国际石油经济,2025,33(6):26-36,11.
