华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）Issue(3)：40-56,17.
东道国政治选举周期对中国对外直接投资的影响研究
Research on the Influence of Host Country's Political Election on China's OFDI
摘要
Abstract
The uncertainty generated by political elections in the investee host country is one of the significant political risks that Chinese enterprises need to confront in"going global".This paper studies the influence of host country's political e-lection cycle on China's OFDI and its moderating factors,and conducts empirical analysis on the basis of the"gravity mod-el"by using systematic GMM regression based on the panel data of China's OFDI to 97 host countries from 2004 to 2022 and the political election data of host countries.The results indicate:(1)political uncertainty in the host country before e-lections reduces China's OFDI significantly,indicating that host country election events increase the risks of overseas in-vestment,thereby affecting investment decisions of Chinese enterprises;(2)heterogeneity analysis shows that the negative impact of host country political elections on China's OFDI is more pronounced in countries with fewer procedures required for new business startups and poor political stability;(3)moderating effect analysis demonstrates that bilateral close and friendly economic and trade exchanges,policy communication,and cultural exchanges positively moderate the negative im-pact,while financial support measures such as the cross-border operation of banks in the home country and the internation-alization of the CNY have no moderating effect on the negative impact.This article enriches the research on the impact of host country political uncertainty on China's OFDI,provides insights for governments to help overseas enterprises mitigate political risks brought by host country regime changes,and offers useful references for Chinese enterprises to implement the"go global"strategy in the context of global fluctuations and rising political risks in various countries.关键词
对外直接投资/政治选举/海外政治风险Key words
OFDI/political elections/overseas political risk分类
经济学引用本文复制引用
蔡伟毅,薛峻涛,洪啸军..东道国政治选举周期对中国对外直接投资的影响研究[J].华侨大学学报（哲学社会科学版）,2025,(3):40-56,17.基金项目
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目"中国OFDI逆向技术溢出与技术进步及其异质性研究"(21FJLB022) （21FJLB022）
