极地研究2025，Vol.37Issue(2)：212-224,13.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.20230054
CMIP6模拟北极海冰面积变化能力评估
Response of Arctic sea ice to area variability in CMIP6 simulations
摘要
Abstract
In the context of ongoing global warming,the accelerated melting and retreat of Arctic sea ice has be-come a hot topic in current research.Based on their capability to simulate the variability in sea ice area and model physical constraints,this study categorized 48 CMIP6 models into four groups:excellent,good,fair,and poor.Comparative analysis of sea ice variability was conducted for near-term(2015-2040),mid-term(2041-2070),and long-term(2071-2100)periods.The derived results indicated the following.(1)The en-semble mean of the excellent models can effectively simulate historical sea ice variability,markedly dimin-ishing the dispersion of the CMIP6 simulation results and greatly reducing the uncertainty in predicting fu-ture sea ice area variability.(2)The ensemble mean of the excellent models reveals that in the near-term 21st century,sea ice area will decrease slowly during winter and spring but more rapidly during summer and au-tumn.In the mid-term to long-term 21st century,under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)2-4.5 sce-narios,the Arctic will be almost ice-free in September,although the overall trend of decline in annual sea ice will slow.Under the SSP5-8.5 scenarios,the Arctic sea ice area will diminish markedly throughout the year,and the Arctic is projected to be ice-free during summer and autumn.(3)It is likely that the Arctic will ex-perience the first ice-free summer in 2037 and 2033,under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios,respec-tively.关键词
CMIP6/北极海冰面积/共享社会经济路径/应对变化评估Key words
CMIP6/Arctic sea ice area/Shared Socioeconomic Pathways/assessment of adaptation to variability引用本文复制引用
胡舒涵,丁瑞昌,吴昊煜,赵传湖,黄菲..CMIP6模拟北极海冰面积变化能力评估[J].极地研究,2025,37(2):212-224,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607004)和国家自然科学基金项目(42075024)资助 （2019YFA0607004）
