极地研究2025，Vol.37Issue(2)：285-304,20.DOI:10.13679/j.jdyj.20230056
基于CMIP6模式的北冰洋波弗特流涡历史和未来不同温室气体排放情景下变化的模拟分析
CMIP6-simulated changes in the Beaufort Gyre during the historical period and in the future under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios
摘要
Abstract
This study investigated the CMIP6-simulated changes in the Beaufort Gyre of the Arctic Ocean during the historical period and in the future under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.It was found that a large number of the CMIP6 models and the multimodel ensemble underesti-mated the strength of the gyre during the historical period.There were large uncertainties in the trend of gyre strength,with only 45%of the 35 CMIP6 models able to reproduce the trend of increase evident in the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 data.The multimodel average Beaufort Gyre strength in the future under the SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed a trend of increase.However,under the SSP5-8.5 scenario,the strength of the Beaufort Gyre during the late 21st century is projected to become lower than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario,and the difference will increase over time.Sea ice concentration and sea level pressure are both projected to continue to decline under the two scenarios,and the trend of decline in sea level pres-sure under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is more obvious than that under the SSP1-2.6 scenario.Analysis suggests that the enhancement of the Beaufort Gyre under the SSP1-2.6 scenario is related mainly to decline in sea ice concentration,whereas the weak enhancement of the Beaufort Gyre under the SSP5-8.5 scenario is related mainly to weakening of the Beaufort High attributable to the marked reduction in sea ice.关键词
CMIP6模式/SSP1-2.6/SSP5-8.5/波弗特流涡/变化趋势Key words
CMIP6 models/SSP1-2.6/SSP5-8.5/Beaufort Gyre/trend引用本文复制引用
杨瀚韬,白学志..基于CMIP6模式的北冰洋波弗特流涡历史和未来不同温室气体排放情景下变化的模拟分析[J].极地研究,2025,37(2):285-304,20.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42276254)资助 （42276254）
