华西口腔医学杂志2025，Vol.43Issue(3)：395-405,11.DOI:10.7518/hxkq.2025.2024340
口腔癌患者失志综合征风险预测模型构建及验证
Risk prediction of demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer
摘要
Abstract
Objective This study aimed to construct a risk prediction model for the occurrence of the demora-lization syndrome in patients with oral cancer and pro-vide a scientific basis for the prevention of this syndrome in patients with oral cancer and the development of personal-ized care programs.Methods A total of 486 patients with oral cancer in West China Hospital of Stomatology of Sich-uan University and Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University from 2024 March to July were selected by convenience sampling.We integrated clinical data and evidence from previous studies to identify the key variables affect-ing the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer.The 486 patients were divided into a training set and a vali-dation set in an 8:2 ratio.A clinical risk prediction model was established based on the individual data of 365 patients in the development cohort.Through least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression,a moderate to severe risk prediction model of demoralization syndrome in oral cancer was constructed,and a clinical machine-learning nomogram was constructed.Bootstrap resampling was used for internal validation.The data of 121 patients in the valida-tion cohort were externally validated.Results The incidence of the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral can-cer was 405 cases(83.3％),of which 279 cases(57.4％)were mild,176 cases(36.2％)were moderate,and 31 cases(6.4％)were severe.The core model,including patient education level,disease understanding,and MDASI-HN score,was used to predict the risk of outcome.Internal validation of the model yielded C statistic of 0.783 6(95％CI:0.78-0.87),beta of 0.843 4,and calibration intercept of-0.040 6.Through external validation,the validation set C statistic was 0.80(95％CI:0.71-0.87),beta was 0.80,and calibration intercept was-0.08.Conclusion Our risk prediction mo-del of the demoralization syndrome in patients with oral cancer performed robustly in validation cohorts of different nur-sing environments.The model has good correction and good discrimination and can be used as an evaluation and predic-tion item at admission.关键词
口腔癌/失志综合征/机器学习/预测模型Key words
oral cancer/demoralization syndrome/machine learning/prediction model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
毛莉艳,杨茜茜,毕小琴,刘敏,赵重阳,温作珍..口腔癌患者失志综合征风险预测模型构建及验证[J].华西口腔医学杂志,2025,43(3):395-405,11.基金项目
四川省科技计划项目(2022JDKP0007) （2022JDKP0007）
成都市医学科研课题(2022015) The Sichuan Province Science and Technology Plan(2022JDKP0007) （2022015）
Medical Research Project of Chengdu(2022015) （2022015）
