临床口腔医学杂志2025，Vol.41Issue(6)：333-338,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1003-1634.2025.06.004
基于SEER数据的舌鳞状细胞癌远处转移预测列线图模型的建立与验证
Establishment and validation of a nomogram model for predicting distant metastases in tongue squamous cell carcinoma based on the SEER data base
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the related risk factors of distant metastasis in patients with tongue squamous cell carcinoma(TSCC)and build a nomogram prediction model.Methods:The data of 12003 TSCC patients were collected from the surveillance,epidemiology,and end results(SEER)database between 2004 and 2015,and randomly divided into the train-ing set(n=8325)and validation set(n=3678).The clinicopathological features were selected by the univariate analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO),and further established a monogram model for perdicting the dis-tatant metastasis of the TSCC patients.Receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves were utilized to evaluate performance of the nomogram model.In addition,dose-response relationship between age and distant metastasis in TSCC patients was analyzed by restricted cubic spline(RCS)curve.Results:Totally 12003 patients with TSCC were finally included in this study,267(2.2％)of whom developed distant metastases.Age,histological grading,T stage,and N stage were the factors affecting the distant metastasis in TSCC patients.The ROC curve results showed that,the area under the curve(AUC)for the nomogram model in the training and validation sets were 0.766 and 0.738,respectively,indicating good pre-dictive accuracy.The calibration curve and Hosmer-Lemshow test results indicate that the predicted values of the nomogram have good consistency with the actual values.The RCS results indicate that,higher age was associated with a higher risk of distant metastasis of TSCC(P＜0.05),but there was no non-linear relationship(P＞0.05).Conclusion:The nomogram pre-diction model constructed based on age,histological grading,T stage,and N stage has good discrimination and calibration,which can assist medical staff in timely identifying high-risk patients with TSCC distant metastasis,and it has important clini-cal application value in personalized treatment.关键词
舌鳞状细胞癌/远处转移/列线图/监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库Key words
Tongue squamous cell carcinoma/Distant metastasis/Nomogram/Surveillance,epidemiology,and end results database分类
临床医学引用本文复制引用
艾山·依力哈木,克热木·阿巴司,魏奕茹,古丽努尔·阿吾提..基于SEER数据的舌鳞状细胞癌远处转移预测列线图模型的建立与验证[J].临床口腔医学杂志,2025,41(6):333-338,6.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金面上项目(2021D01C321) （2021D01C321）
