气象2025，Vol.51Issue(6)：724-734,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2025.011301
BCC-CPSv3次季节降水预测在长江流域汛期的检验评估
Performance Evaluation of BCC-CPSv3 Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction in the Flood Season of the Yangtze River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the prediction results of Beijing Climate Center-Climate Prediction System version 3-Subseasonal to Seasonal version 2(BCC-CPSv3-S2Sv2),various evaluation and test methods are used to test the prediction effect of the model in the flood season across the Yangtze River Basin,and to evaluate the prediction skills of subseasonal daily/dekad precipitation in the flood season in the Yangtze River Basin.The model error characteristics and the available prediction lead time of model precipitation are analyzed.The results show that the model systematically overestimates the precipitation in flood season in the Yangtze River Basin as a whole,and its prediction skill in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze Riv-er is higher than that in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River.The dekad prediction skill of the model is improved with the initial time approaching,but the BS predicted 5 d ahead is better than that predicted 1 d ahead.The effective prediction time of the model for the daily quantitative prediction in the flood season in the Yangtze River Basin is about ten days,and its qualitative prediction of the precipitation anomaly in the flood season is similar.The skill of model prediction 1 dekad ahead is obviously higher than that 2 dekads ahead.The analysis results of the probabilistic prediction of precipitation anomalies during the flood season show that the prediction 2 to 3 dekads ahead also has some reference values.In addition,the prediction skill of model under less rain scenario is better than that under excessive rain scenario.There is still much room for improving the prediction capability for the moderate rainfall and above.关键词
次季节至季节/CPSv3模式/降水预测/长江流域Key words
subseasonal to seasonal/CPSv3 model/precipitation prediction/Yangtze River Basin分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
孙晨,杨青青,吴碧琼,杜良敏,洪佳颖..BCC-CPSv3次季节降水预测在长江流域汛期的检验评估[J].气象,2025,51(6):724-734,11.基金项目
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-084)、湖北省自然科学基金项目(2023AFD103)、中国长江电力股份有限公司项目(2423020048)和武汉市气象科技联合基金项目(2024020901030459)共同资助 （FPZJ2024-084）
