气象2025，Vol.51Issue(6)：744-755,12.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.111501
基于模糊评价法的山洪灾害气象预警方法
Meteorological Early Warning Method of Mountain Torrent Disaster Based on Fuzzy Evaluation Method
摘要
Abstract
A meteorological early warning method for mountain torrent disasters is proposed using the fuzzy evaluation method in this paper.The method is based on the dynamic critical rainfall for mountain torrent early warning that considers soil water content saturation,then a correspondence between meteorological warning levels and fuzzy scores for mountain torrent disasters is established based on the fuzzy evaluation method.Equal weight averaging and weighting algorithms constructed based on the coefficient of determi-nation or the relative error of peak flow are respectively adopted.With this method,together with the comprehensive fuzzy scores for meteorological warning calculated by using the precipitation forecasts from CMA-MESO,CMA-SH9,CMA-BJ and intelligent grid forecasting,the meteorological early warning level is determined.The results show that the hit rate of the meteorological early warning results based on the fuzzy evaluation method is comparable to that of the CMA-BJ and higher than other models,the miss rate and false alarm rate are also comparable to those of the CMA-BJ and lower than other models,the TS scores are all higher than those of other models,through the application and verification of the mountain torrent disaster in Hengshui of Anyang River from 17 to 22 July 2021.This method can extend the lead time of mountain torrent prediction and improve the accuracy of early warning.关键词
山洪灾害/气象预警/动态临界雨量/模糊评价法Key words
mountain torrent disaster/meteorological early warning/dynamic critical rainfall/fuzzy evalu-ation method分类
大气科学引用本文复制引用
王振亚,王迪,栗晗,张亚春,马蕴琦,葛振飞..基于模糊评价法的山洪灾害气象预警方法[J].气象,2025,51(6):744-755,12.基金项目
2023年度河南省重点研发与推广专项(科技攻关)(232102320027)、中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(22NLTSY005)和河南省2021年度国家超级计算郑州中心创新生态系统建设科技专项(201400210800)共同资助 （科技攻关）
