清华大学学报（自然科学版）2025，Vol.65Issue(6)：1027-1039,13.DOI:10.16511/j.cnki.qhdxxb.2025.22.024
基于多Agent模型的应急指挥对地震应急救援的影响仿真研究
Simulation study on the impact of emergency command on earthquake emergency rescue based on multi-agent modeling
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Increasing complexity of disaster rescue systems and frequent global natural disasters require efficient emergency command mechanisms to reduce life and property losses.Large-scale earthquakes present time-sensitive,multi-dimensional challenges,needing rapid decisions,precise resource allocation,and cross-departmental coordination.However,current research does not quantitatively analyze how emergency command capabilities affect rescue efficiency in dynamic disaster scenarios.This study develops a multi-agent simulation model based on the 6.2-magnitude Jishishan earthquake in China to assess the impact of command strategies on rescue operations and optimize emergency response systems.[Methods]A multi-agent simulation model is developed using the NetLogo platform to meet the research objectives.It represents the emergency command and rescue system with four types of agents:the on-scene chief command agent,the on-scene support command agent,the emergency rescue force agent,and the disaster-affected agent.Each agent has specific behavioral patterns and interaction rules.The on-scene chief command agent oversees coordination,decision-making,and resource allocation.The on-scene support command agent manages task planning,resource scheduling,and real-time information feedback.The emergency rescue force agent performs rescue tasks,while the disaster-affected agent represents victims awaiting rescue.The simulation model is designed to reflect real-world scenarios,focusing on key variables such as information completeness,decision-making capability,resource allocation efficiency,and coordination success rate.This study analyzes scenarios under different conditions:(1)Information incompleteness:limited communication and fragmented data;(2)Resource scarcity:imbalanced demand-supply distribution;and(3)Feedback delays:lagging information updates and decision adjustments.The rescue rate(R),defined as the ratio of rescued victims to total victims,is the primary performance metric.Comparative analyses adjust agent capabilities to identify optimal strategies.[Results]The simulation results highlight key findings:(1)Critical role of command capabilities.The on-scene chief command agent's information organization and coordination control capabilities are crucial in accelerating early-stage rescue operations.When optimized,these capabilities increase R by 0.4 within the first five simulation ticks.The on-scene chief command agent's feedback adjustment capability becomes crucial in later stages,thus reducing task conflicts by 0.25 through dynamic strategy updates.(2)Scenario-specific optimization strategies.Under incomplete information conditions,improving the on-scene support command agent's resource scheduling speed increases R from 0.4 to 0.9 in 9 ticks.During resource scarcity,enhancing the on-scene support command agent's coordination ability minimizes allocation conflicts,thus achieving a stable R of 0.7 despite limited supplies.During feedback delays,enhancing the on-scene support command agent's task prioritization management reduces decision latency by 30％,thus increasing R from 0.5 to 0.68 in 12 ticks.(3)Role of lower-level command agents.This study emphasizes the significance of lower-level command agents,especially the on-scene support command agent,in enhancing rescue efficiency.Optimizing their resource scheduling and coordination abilities can significantly enhance the overall rescue operation,even under complex,challenging conditions.[Conclusions]This study quantitatively confirms that effective emergency command is crucial for earthquake rescue efficiency.The on-scene chief command agent's information integration and macro-level coordination capabilities form the foundation for rapid response,while the on-scene support command agent's strategic optimizations are critical under resource constraints.A hierarchical,decentralized command structure is recommended to effectively balance decision-making authority with operational flexibility.Future research should combine dynamic disaster factors to evaluate the robustness of command strategies in unpredictable scenarios.关键词
应急指挥/指挥效能/地震应急救援/多Agent建模/NetLogo仿真Key words
emergency command/command effectiveness/earthquake emergency response/multi-agent modeling/NetLogo simulation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
郭翔,胡伟彪..基于多Agent模型的应急指挥对地震应急救援的影响仿真研究[J].清华大学学报（自然科学版）,2025,65(6):1027-1039,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(19BGL242) （19BGL242）
