摘要
Abstract
Baishui County is an important apple producing area in the Loess Plateau,and it is of great significance to study the land use pattern changes for future urban development and construction.Based on the land use classified data in 2000,2010 and 2020 and 10 natural and anthropogenic driving factors,the multiple scenarios simulation of land use pattern in Baishui County was carried out by Markov-FLUS model.The results showed that:(1)The overall accuracy of Markov-FLUS reached 0.9313 and the Kappa coefficient reached 0.8734,which was suitable for land use simulation in Baishui County.(2)Under the three scenarios,there were obvious differences in land use changes in Baishui County.In the natural development scenario,the expansion trend of construction land was the most significant,with an increase of 23.19％;in the scenario of cultivated land protection,cultivated land had been protected to a certain extent,with a decreasing trend from 2.27％to 1.16％;in the ecological protection scenario,forest land showed the only increasing trend,with an increase of 3.32％,and the decreasing trend of grassland decreased from 0.36％to 0.24％.(3)In the process of land use in the future,the land use structure should be adjusted according to the development goals,so as to realize the sustainable development of land use.关键词
土地利用/Markov-FLUS模型/自然发展/耕地保护/生态保护Key words
land use/Markov-FLUS model/natural development/cultivated land protection/ecological protection
