情报杂志2025，Vol.44Issue(7)：22-27,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2025.07.004
战略预警视角下2023年巴以冲突中以色列情报失误研究
Research on Israel's Intelligence Failures During the 2023 Israeli-Palestinian Conflict from the Perspective of Strategic Warning
申展 1王昕1
作者信息
- 1. 国防科技大学外国语学院 南京 210039
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]Studying Israel's warning intelligence failures in the context of Hamas's surprise attack in 2023 will help to respond to the current new challenges of strategic intelligence warning.[Research method]Through literature analysis and historical anal-ysis methods,based on strategic warning theory and public literature on Israel's warning intelligence failures caused by Hamas's surprise at-tacks,this paper sorts out and analyzes the practices and characteristics of intelligence preparation for Hamas's surprise attacks and the les-sons of the attacked countries' warning intelligence failures.[Research result/conclusion]Hamas accumulates multi-dimensional intelli-gence capabilities and implements strategic deception and intelligence denial.Israel's strategic warning failures lie in the confirmation bias in strategic intelligence gathering,the lack of precision in the analysis of warning intelligence,and the politicization of intelligence in the procedures of intelligence organization.Responding to surprise attacks by non-state actors requires improved intelligence gathering and monitoring of the military capabilities of non-state actors,improving the intelligence analysis process and update adversary intention intelli-gence warning indicators in a timely manner,improving intelligence organizational procedures and enhance cooperation between analysts and decision-makers.关键词
战略预警/情报失误/情报预警/情报搜集/巴以冲突/以色列Key words
strategic warning/intelligence failures/intelligence warning/intelligence gathering/Israeli-Palestinian conflict/Israel引用本文复制引用
申展,王昕..战略预警视角下2023年巴以冲突中以色列情报失误研究[J].情报杂志,2025,44(7):22-27,6.
