情报杂志2025，Vol.44Issue(7)：156-164,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2025.07.019
基于ISM-AHP-SD的突发事件网络舆情风险影响因素研究
Research on the Analysis of Influencing Factors of Emergency Network Public Opinion Risk Based on ISM-AHP-SD
摘要
Abstract
[Research purpose]Clarifying the influencing factors of online public opinion risks in emergencies and predicting the trend of public opinion risks can provide a theoretical basis for the governance of online public opinion risks by government departments.[Re-search method]Using system dynamics(SD),the public opinion risk system is divided into 4 sub-systems:government,internet users,network media,events,and 24 influencing factors.Interpretive structure model(ISM)is used to analyze the causal relationships and hier-archical structure among the influencing factors,and identify the underlying factors that directly affect public opinion risk.The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)is applied to analyze the weights of each influencing factor.The Vensim software is used to construct an evolu-tion model of online public opinion risks in emergencies.The case of"Guangxi Detian Waterfall Gondola'8 10'Accident"is included in the simulation analysis to explore the key factors that have a significant impact on public opinion risks.[Research result/conclusion]The research results show that the government's response capability,response speed,the influence of opinion leaders,the activity level of on-line media,and the impact of events have a significant effect on the risk of online public opinion,and the universality of the method has been confirmed in simulations.Therefore,government can consider using this method and focus on the above factors to achieve effective risk management when dealing with public opinion in emergencies.关键词
突发事件/网络舆情/舆情风险/系统动力学/解释结构模型/层次分析法Key words
emergency events/internet public opinion/public opinion risk/system dynamics/interpretive structure model/analytic hier-archy process分类
安全科学引用本文复制引用
王潇,王翰文..基于ISM-AHP-SD的突发事件网络舆情风险影响因素研究[J].情报杂志,2025,44(7):156-164,9.基金项目
辽宁省社会科学基金项目"突发公共事件舆论引导的机制、路径与方法研究"(编号:L23BXW003)研究成果. （编号:L23BXW003）
