热带气象学报2025，Vol.41Issue(2)：189-199,11.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2025.017
气候变化背景下广东双季稻种植的洪涝灾害风险评估
Flood Risk Assessment of Double-Cropping Rice Cultivation in Guangdong Province under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
The flood disaster risk assessment model was established to analyze and evaluate the spatio-temporal characteristics of flood disaster risks during both cultivation and growth periods of double-cropping rice in Guangdong Province.The results indicate that the flood disaster risk of double cropping rice cultivation in Guangdong generally decreases from the central region toward the eastern and western wings,with the highest risks in the Beijiang River Basin and Moyangjiang River Basin and the lowest in western and eastern coastal Guangdong.The risks in the northern region of Guangdong are 1.5 to 2.0 times higher than those in the eastern and western wings.The results also indicate that the flood disaster risk for late rice is higher than for early rice.In terms of growth stages,the flood risk is high during the transplanting-tillering and tillering-jointing stages of the early rice,as well as the sowing-three-leaf and three-leaf-transplanting stages of the late rice,with notably higher frequency of particularly severe flood disasters.Over the past decade,the flood risks for double-cropping rice in Guangdong have increased,with an increase in the frequency of extremely severe flood disasters,particularly notable during the early rice sowing-to-transplanting stage and the late rice jointing-to-maturity stage,while the frequencies of severe-level and less severe floods have decreased.Moreover,the changing rates of flood risk for double-cropping rice in Guangdong exhibit pronounced regional variations:the Pearl River Delta Plain displays the most significant increasing trend,whereas the Dongjiang and Hanjiang River Basins show a decreasing trend.In the future,the overall trend of flood disaster risks for double cropping rice in Guangdong is expected to rise,with more frequent occurrences of extremely severe flood disasters,exhibiting higher spatiotemporal concentration.The highest flood risk for double-cropping rice systems is observed during the critical growth period from sowing to jointing,with regions in central Guangdong being the key areas of highly concern.关键词
洪涝灾害风险度/双季稻/气候变化/广东省Key words
flood risk/double-cropping rice/climate change/Guangdong Province分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
段海来,刘畅,张柳红,杜尧东..气候变化背景下广东双季稻种植的洪涝灾害风险评估[J].热带气象学报,2025,41(2):189-199,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2142208) （U2142208）
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J041) （CXFZ2024J041）
中国气象局气候变化专题项目(QBZ202401) （QBZ202401）
干旱气象科学研究基金项目(IAM202401) （IAM202401）
广东省气象局软科学项目(M202414) （M202414）
天津市海洋气象重点实验室开放基金项目(2024TKLOM11)共同资助 （2024TKLOM11）
