生态学报2025，Vol.45Issue(11)：5351-5362,12.DOI:10.20103/j.stxb.202410152504
京津冀旱涝急转事件特征分析及风险评估
Characterization and risk assessment of drought-flood abrupt alternation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,there has been a notable increase in the frequency of drought-flood abrupt alteration events at the global scale,coinciding with a rise in temperature.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,the third largest urban agglomeration and an important food production area in China,is particularly susceptible to the impacts of drought-flood abrupt alternation events.It is of great significance to characterize the spatial and temporal features of the event and assess the risk of disaster in order to prevent and control the event.In this paper,we employ a hydrological spatio-temporal evolution research method and disaster risk system,in conjunction with the Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function(REOF)method,Gini coefficient,and other analytical techniques,a complete system for analyzing the characteristics of rapid transition from drought to flood events and assessing their disaster risks was constructed and applied to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.The characteristics of rapid transition from drought to flood events in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were depicted,the evolution trend of such events was analyzed,and the risk level of rapid transition from drought to flood events was evaluated,providing a scientific basis for the high-quality development of the region and the prevention of rapid transition from drought to flood disasters.The findings indicate that:(1)The intensity of drought-flood abrupt alternation events exhibits a notable upward trajectory across multiple temporal scales in the historical period,underscoring the heightened risk of drought and flood emergencies in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.(2)The seasonal distribution of drought-flood abrupt alternation events exhibits a high level during the summer and autumn months and a low level during the spring and winter.Additionally,the geographic focus of these events has shifted from the west to the east over the course of the year.(3)The risk of drought-flood abrupt alternation is higher in Shijiazhuang City and Cangzhou City,and lower along the Taihang-Yanshan Mountain Range.The overall spatial distribution characteristics of this phenomenon are as follows:high in the north and low in the south,and high in the east and low in the west.Among them,the disaster risk associated with the transition from drought to flood is greater than that from flood to drought.(4)The distribution of the elements and risks of drought-flood abrupt alternation is relatively balanced,although some populations experience abnormally high values.This study elucidates the development pattern of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,thereby providing a reference for drought-flood abrupt alternation disaster prevention and risk avoidance.关键词
旱涝急转事件/京津冀/灾害风险评估/基尼系数/Mann-kedall趋势检验Key words
drought-flood abrupt alternation events/Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region/disaster risk assessment/Gini coefficient/MK trend test引用本文复制引用
门宝辉,李国娇,吕行,伍兴涛,庞金凤..京津冀旱涝急转事件特征分析及风险评估[J].生态学报,2025,45(11):5351-5362,12.基金项目
国家"十三五"重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401406) （2016YFC0401406）
企业委托项目—基于双碳目标的水安全评估及水光风储多能互补优化调度研究(2023-145) （2023-145）
