石油钻采工艺2025，Vol.47Issue(2)：255-264,10.DOI:10.13639/j.odpt.202503001
时间序列统计法预测中国页岩油开采技术发展趋势
Prediction of development trend of shale oil production technology in China by time series statistics
摘要
Abstract
Most of the research contents and methods for shale oil extraction are borrowed from conventional oil reservoirs at present.Although improvements and adjustments have been made according to the characteristics of shale oil,they still cannot be fully applied,which affects the development efficiency.More than 900 literatures related to shale oil and tight oil extraction were reviewed,and 50 literatures with strong representativeness and good innovation in technical content were carefully selected.According to the problems or purposes involved in the research,26 literatures are related to oil-displacing media,15 literatures are about the micro-mechanism,and 5 literatures are on the evaluation of development benefits.The ARIMA(1,0,1)model is used to predict the development trend of the research direction of shale oil extraction in the next 5 years.At the same time,the research hotspots are optimized through the frequency statistics method.It is found that among the 22 types of research contents,four types,namely water flooding for oil displacement,CO2 huff and puff oil recovery,evaluation of huff and puff and displacement,and the conditions for oil and gas production,are the hot research directions.Among the 21 types of key technologies,six types,namely water huff and puff experiments,software production capacity prediction,numerical simulation of oil reservoirs,CO2 huff and puff experiments,PVT and miscibility experiments,and molecular dynamics simulation,are the main research methods.Using mathematical methods for scientific calculation and reasonable prediction can accurately and quantitatively grasp the future research hotspots and technological development directions of shale oil extraction,which helps researchers clarify the research focus and avoid blind exploration.关键词
页岩油开采/研究热点/技术方法/关键技术/发展趋势/统计法Key words
shale oil extraction/research hotspots/technical methods/key technologies/development trend/statistical method分类
石油、天然气工程引用本文复制引用
李宏宏,郑力会,张鹏,金龙,郭秦,赵俊淇..时间序列统计法预测中国页岩油开采技术发展趋势[J].石油钻采工艺,2025,47(2):255-264,10.基金项目
国家科技重大专项"多气合采钻完井技术和储层保护"(编号:2016ZX05066002). （编号:2016ZX05066002）
