中国农学通报2025，Vol.41Issue(14)：87-92,6.
基于能量平衡的春季稻虾田水温预报模型研究
Research on Water Temperature Prediction Model of Spring Rice and Shrimp Field Based on Energy Balance
摘要
Abstract
Spring water temperature forecasting in rice-shrimp fields allows farmers to anticipate temperature trends in advance,providing critical guidance for decisions on seedling stocking timing,aquaculture management,disease prevention,and anti-stress preparation.Based on the principle of energy balance,this study analyzes variations in surface solar radiation,effective back radiation from the water surface,latent heat exchange,and sensible heat exchange.By calculating the energy budget deficit of the water body and applying heat balance and mass transport equations for a micro-element water body,a spring rice-shrimp field water temperature forecast model is established and validated.The results are as follows.(1)The trends of the forecasted water temperature are basically the same as those of the measured water temperature but exhibit phase lags,indicating a delayed response in predictions;(2)Under clear-sky conditions,hourly forecasts of water temperature exhibit small deviations from measurements,with average absolute errors for daily mean,maximum,and minimum temperatures ranging from 0.3 to 0.5℃.This model demonstrates practical applicability,high precision,and reliable results.Compared with statistical methods,this physically-based model offers stronger interpretability and superior simulation accuracy,thereby enhancing the accuracy of spring water temperature forecasts in rice-shrimp fields.关键词
能量平衡/总辐射/感热通量/潜热通量/水温/虾稻共作/水产养殖/预报模型Key words
energy balance/total radiation/sensible heat flux/latent heat flux/water temperature/shrimp-rice co-cropping/aquaculture/prediction model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
黄永平,邓艳君,刘志雄,刘凯文,杨青青,叶佩..基于能量平衡的春季稻虾田水温预报模型研究[J].中国农学通报,2025,41(14):87-92,6.基金项目
湖北省气象局重点基金项目"湖北省主要水产品气象灾害预警预报关键技术研究"(2022Z03) （2022Z03）
湖北省气象局科研项目"气象条件对工厂化循环水养殖环境与产量的影响研究"(2022Y19). （2022Y19）
