中国农学通报2025，Vol.41Issue(14)：111-119,9.
库尔勒香梨物候期特征及花期预测
Characteristics of Phenological Period and Prediction of Flowering Period in Korla Fragrant Pear
摘要
Abstract
It is of great significance to study and forecast the phenological period of Korla fragrant pear in order to accurately grasp its growth cycle,optimize cultivation management,and improve yield and quality.The phenological evolution trend of Korla fragrant pear and the influence of main meteorological factors on the phenological period were analyzed by means of trend analysis,correlation analysis and significance test.Two machine learning algorithms,random forest(RF)and long short-term memory(LSTM),were used to predict the flowering period.The results showed that,in spring phenology,the peak stage of leaf development was delayed at a rate of 0.29 d/a,and the rest showed an advance trend,with an advance rate of 0.12-0.37 d/a,in which the advance of flower bud opening stage was the largest,and that of flowering peak stage was the least.In the autumn phenophase,the fruit ripening stage was advanced by 0.14 d/a,and the leaf discoloration stage and defoliation stage were delayed by 0.03-0.15 d/a.The growing season extended at a rate of 0.14 d/a,and the elongation was more obvious after 2012.Temperature is the main meteorological factor affecting the phenological period,and its influence on the spring phenological period is greater than that on the autumn phenological period.Sunshine hours and precipitation will also affect the phenological period.RF is better than LSTM in predicting the initial flowering period,and LSTM is better than RF in predicting the full flowering period.The research is expected to provide scientific basis for the optimization of cultivation management,quality and efficiency improvement,disaster prevention and mitigation of Korla fragrant pear.关键词
库尔勒香梨/物候期/相关分析/随机森林/长短期记忆网络/花期预测Key words
Korla fragrant pear/phenophase/correlation analysis/random forest/long short-term memory/prediction of flowering period分类
生物科学引用本文复制引用
霍锦,昝永黎,刁鹏,吴新国,魏艳英,龚美玲..库尔勒香梨物候期特征及花期预测[J].中国农学通报,2025,41(14):111-119,9.基金项目
新疆巴音郭楞蒙古自治州气象局创新团队专项"巴州特色林果气象服务创新团队项目"(CX202402) （CX202402）
新疆维吾尔自治区气象局创新发展专项重点项目"中亚基础气象数据产品研发及其应用"(ZD202304). （ZD202304）
