中国蔬菜Issue(6)：14-20,7.DOI:10.19928/j.cnki.1000-6346.2025.6003
番茄价格季节性波动规律及动态变化特征研究
Study of Seasonal Fluctuations and Dynamic Characteristics of Tomato Prices in China
摘要
Abstract
The paper uses the X-12-ARIMA model to analyze the seasonal fluctuations and dynamic characteristics of tomato prices.From 2004 to 2023,tomato prices seasonal fluctuations peaked in February each year and the price rises led by seasonal factors was 24.13％ while the lowest point of seasonal fluctuations was in July each year and the price decline was 24.83％.January,March,April,May,and December were the months when tomato prices rose seasonally,with an average increase of 19.54％,20.13％,16.44％,0.36％,and 4.62％,respectively.June,August,September,October,and November were the months of seasonal declined in tomato prices,with average declines of 20.99％,22.89％,12.02％,3.25％,and 0.52％during the study period,respectively.From a dynamic perspective,the seasonal fluctuation range of tomato prices showed a decreasing trend,which was because the seasonal peak range showed decline trend whereas the lowest range of seasonal fluctuations showed rising trend.Overall,the seasonal increase in tomato prices in February,March,and April showed a narrowing trend,while in December it showed an expanding trend.And the seasonal decline in tomato prices in June,July,and August also showed a narrowing trend.Tomato prices turned from seasonal increase to decrease in May;in November,it shifted from a seasonal decline to a seasonal increase.关键词
番茄/价格/季节性/X-12-ARIMA模型Key words
tomatoes/price/seasonality/X-12-ARIMA model引用本文复制引用
项朝阳,宋长鸣,肖小勇..番茄价格季节性波动规律及动态变化特征研究[J].中国蔬菜,2025,(6):14-20,7.基金项目
教育部人文社科研究项目(24YJC790151),国家大宗蔬菜产业技术体系产业经济与发展政策研究项目(CARS-23-F01),国家自然科学基金项目(71873051) （24YJC790151）
