中国农业大学学报2025，Vol.30Issue(7)：24-35,12.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2025.07.03
黄河流域干旱传播特征及其驱动因子分析
Drought propagation characteristics in the Yellow River Basin and its driving factor analyse
摘要
Abstract
To quantitatively reveal the propagation patterns of meteorological drought to agricultural drought and the influence of driving factors in the Yellow River Basin,this study utilized precipitation data and the self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index(sc-PDSI)data from 1982 to 2021 in the Yellow River Basin.The Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI)and sc-PDSI were employed to characterize meteorological drought and agricultural drought,respectively.The maximum Pearson correlation coefficient method was used to calculate and analyze the propagation time and its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of meteorological drought to agricultural drought across different seasons.Furthermore,this study comprehensively considered meteorological factors(precipitation,temperature,potential evapotranspiration),underlying surface factors(slope,aspect,elevation,and surface incision depth),and human activities(land use type)that influence drought propagation,using the GeoDetector method to explore their explanatory power on drought propagation time.Results reveal that the propagation time of meteorological to agricultural drought in the Yellow River Basin has pronounced seasonal and regional characteristics.Temporally,the propagation time in autumn and winter is noticeably longer than in spring and summer.Spatially,drought propagation time shows significant spatial heterogeneity across seasons.Factor detector indicates that the dominant factors influencing the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of drought propagation time vary across seasons:elevation,temperature,and precipitation are the primary factors in spring and summer,while precipitation is the main factor in autumn and winter.Interaction detection analysis further reveals that the interactions between precipitation and temperature,as well as precipitation and elevation,have the most significant impact.In conclusion,this study provides a scientific basis for formulating effective drought early warning mechanisms and optimizing water resource management strategies.关键词
气象干旱/农业干旱/干旱传播时间/地理探测器/黄河流域Key words
meteorological drought/agricultural drought/drought propagation time/GeoDetector/the Yellow River Basin分类
植物保护学引用本文复制引用
王世佳,田静..黄河流域干旱传播特征及其驱动因子分析[J].中国农业大学学报,2025,30(7):24-35,12.基金项目
鄂尔多斯市科技重大专项(ZD20232303) （ZD20232303）
国家自然科学基金项目(42071327) （42071327）
