中国电力2025，Vol.58Issue(6)：33-44,12.DOI:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202407042
新型电力系统风险抑制下分布式光伏承载力概率评估方法
Probability Evaluation Method of Distributed Photovoltaic Carrying Capacity under Risk Suppression in New Power System
摘要
Abstract
In order to suppress the safety and stable operation risks brought by the disorderly integration of distributed photovoltaics in the context of the new power system,a hierarchical probability evaluation method based on historical scene statistics is proposed.This method establishes a grading probability evaluation model of PV bearing capacity based on reverse load ratio and a safety check probability evaluation model.The grading probability evaluation process of PV bearing capacity weaknesses based on historical scene statistics is given.By constructing a PV bearing capacity evaluation model based on percentile statistics,a hierarchical probability evaluation method for the capacity of distributed PV access distribution network is finally formed.The effectiveness and universality of the proposed method are verified by the improved guideline example and the actual distribution network case.Experiments show that the method can scientifically show the new PV capacity of each power supply area under different percentiles,and the identified PV capacity weakness is more in line with statistical significance.关键词
配电网/光伏承载力/历史场景统计/分层分级Key words
distribution grid/photovoltaic carrying capacity/historical scene statistics/hierarchical grading引用本文复制引用
王方敏,顼佳宇,苏宁,牛焕娜,袁嘉兴,门盼龙..新型电力系统风险抑制下分布式光伏承载力概率评估方法[J].中国电力,2025,58(6):33-44,12.基金项目
北京电力经济技术研究院有限公司资助项目(SGBJJY00SJJS2400033) （SGBJJY00SJJS2400033）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFE0129400). This work is supported by Beijing Electric Power Economic Research Institute Co.,Ltd.Technology Project(No.SGBJJY00SJJS-2400033),National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFE0129400). （2022YFE0129400）
