中国电机工程学报2025，Vol.45Issue(11)：4103-4116,14.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.240332
大规模电动汽车充换电设施可调能力聚合评估与预测
Aggregated Assessment and Prediction of Adjustable Capacity for Large-scale Electric Vehicle Charging and Battery Swapping Facilities
摘要
Abstract
In the context of a high proportion of renewable energy integrating into the power system,electric vehicles,as a significant type of flexibility resource,have great potential in participating in power system dispatch and enhancing the capability of absorbing renewable energy.However,after a large number of electric vehicles are integrated into the grid,traditional orderly charging methods face challenges due to the difficulty of predicting individual charging demands and the long solving time.Therefore,firstly,an aggregate assessment method for the adjustable capability of large numbers of electric vehicles is proposed,which considers both charging and battery swapping facilities.Subsequently,an analysis of the choice of predictive variables for this assessment method is conducted,resulting in the identification of characterizing parameters suitable for the prediction of adjustable capabilities.Next,a scenario prediction method based on long short-term memory networks and conditional variational autoencoders is introduced,capable of generating a set of predictive scenarios for the characterizing parameters with inputs such as the weather and date type.Finally,the effectiveness of the aggregate assessment and prediction methods for adjustable capabilities is validated using large-scale historical charging and swapping records from Beijing.关键词
电动汽车/充换电设施/灵活性/可调能力评估/可调能力预测Key words
electric vehicles/charging and battery swapping facilities/flexibility/adjustable capability assessment/adjustable capability forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
鲍志远,胡泽春..大规模电动汽车充换电设施可调能力聚合评估与预测[J].中国电机工程学报,2025,45(11):4103-4116,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFB2403900).National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFB2403900). （2022YFB2403900）
