中国感染控制杂志2025，Vol.24Issue(6)：830-836,7.DOI:10.12138/j.issn.1671-9638.20257071
新型冠状病毒疫情防控措施对中国上呼吸道感染疾病负担的影响
Impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the disease bur-den of upper respiratory infections in China
胡娟 1唐永忠 2李朵朵 3刘振国 3周鹏程3
作者信息
- 1. 中南大学湘雅三医院感染科,湖南长沙 410013||中南大学湘雅护理学院,湖南长沙 410013
- 2. 中南大学湘雅三医院麻醉科,湖南 长沙 410013
- 3. 中南大学湘雅三医院感染科,湖南长沙 410013
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To evaluate the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control measures on the disease burden of upper respiratory infections(URIs)in China.Methods Age-standardized incidence rate,mortality rate,and di-sability-adjusted life-year rate in Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database were used to describe the disease burden and compared before and after the outbreak of COVID-19.The disease burden in 2022-2024 was predicted by the autoregressive integrated moving average model in R 4.4.0 software.Results The disease burden of URIs in China showed a fluctuating downward trend from 1990 to 2021.Age-standardized incidence rate,mortality rate,and disability-adjusted life-year rate showed a downward trend from 2018 to 2019.The age-standardized incidence rate decreased from 137 869.97/100 000(95％UI:121 058.04/100 000-158 137.76/100 000)in 2019 to 137 060.04/100 000(95％UI:120 167.04/100 000-156 888.93/100 000)in 2020.The age-standardized mortality rate were 0.15/100 000(95％UI:0.09/100 000-0.40/100 000)and 0.15/100 000(95％UI:0.09/100 000-0.38/100 000,respectively.The age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate decreased from 51.76/100 000(95％UI:32.16/100 000-77.43/100 000)to 51.44/100 000(95％UI:32.19/100 000-76.90/100 000.In 2021,the above-mentioned indicators were higher than those in 2020,but still lower than those in 2019.The au-toregressive integrated moving average model predicted that over the next three years,the age-standardized incidence rate and disability-adjusted life-year rate might show an upward trend,and the age-standardized mortality rate was likely to decline.Conclusion The disease burden of URIs in China shows a downward trend,and declines signifi-cantly after the outbreak of COVID-19.After COVID-19 being categorized as a class B infectious disease managed with class B measures,the age-standardized incidence rate increases,which reflects the effectiveness of the COVID-19 prevention and control measures on reducing the disease burden of URIs.关键词
上呼吸道感染/预防和控制/疾病负担/预测/中国/疫情防控措施Key words
upper respiratory infection/prevention and control/disease burden/predict/China/epidemic pre-vention and control measure分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
胡娟,唐永忠,李朵朵,刘振国,周鹏程..新型冠状病毒疫情防控措施对中国上呼吸道感染疾病负担的影响[J].中国感染控制杂志,2025,24(6):830-836,7.
