干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(7)：1159-1172,14.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.01
1981-2024年雅鲁藏布江流域降水集中度与特征量季节性变化
Spatiotemporal variations of the precipitation concentration index and seasonal precipitation characteristics in the Yalung Zangbo River Basin from 1981 to 2024
摘要
Abstract
The precipitation concentration index(PCI)is a measure of precipitation during the year.Based on the monthly precipitation data of 15 meteorological stations in the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin(YZRB)from 1981 to 2024,the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of PCI,the amount of seasonal precipitation,its frequency and intensity over the last 44 years,and the reasons for a change in PCI were analyzed using a linear equation,Person coefficient,and five mutation tests,including the Mann-Kendall and Cramer tests.The results indicated that(1)The PCI increased from east to west in YZRB,whereas annual precipitation,precipitation frequency,and precipitation intensity decreased from east to west.(2)Over the past 44 years,the PCI decreased at a rate of-0.26 per decade,indicating a trend toward more evenly distributed monthly precipitation throughout the year.Precipitation exhibited an increasing trend from January to July and October(the fastest increase in July),and it decreased in other months(the most in September).Monthly precipitation accounted for the proportion of annual precipitation(MPAP),which increased in February and April-July(the largest in May).MPAP was decreased in other months(the largest decrease in September).(3)The increase of precipitation in spring,summer,and winter was primarily due to the increase in precipitation intensity,whereas the decrease of precipitation frequency played a major role in the decreased amount of precipitation during autumn.Furthermore,the increase in annual precipitation intensity resulted from the significant increase of the Tibetan Plateau-1 index and the western Pacif-ic warm pool intensity index.The decrease in the PCI was related to a decrease in the seasonal difference under the background of warming.(4)The PCI was lower only in the 2000s,but was higher in the other three decades,although there was a sudden change in the early 1990s.The abrupt changes in annual precipitation,frequency,and intensity occurred during the first 10 years of the 2000s and the middle and late 1990s.关键词
降水集中度/降水特征量/变化特征/大气环流指数/海温指数/雅鲁藏布江Key words
precipitation concentration/precipitation characteristic quantity/variation characteristics/atmo-spheric circulation index/SST index/Yalung Zangbo River Basin引用本文复制引用
杜军,高佳佳,陈涛,次旺,巴果卓玛..1981-2024年雅鲁藏布江流域降水集中度与特征量季节性变化[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(7):1159-1172,14.基金项目
西藏自治区科技计划项目揭榜挂帅专项(XZ202303ZY0002G) （XZ202303ZY0002G）
中国气象科学研究院青藏高原气象科学研究院开放课题(CAMS/ITPM2024K02) （CAMS/ITPM2024K02）
西藏自治区科技创新基地建设项目(XZ202401YD0008) （XZ202401YD0008）
