干旱区研究2025，Vol.42Issue(7)：1257-1268,12.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2025.07.09
气候变化对柴达木盆地植被绿度的影响及趋势预估
Impact and trend estimation of climate change on vegetation greenness in the Qaidam Basin
摘要
Abstract
Exploring the quantitative pre assessment of the climate impact of vegetation greenness changes in the Qaidam Basin can help promote the integrated protection and systematic management of mountains,waters,for-ests,fields,lakes,grasses,sands,and gases.This article is based on MODIS NDVI data,meteorological data,and climate change prediction datasets.It monitors the changes in vegetation greenness with NDVI≤0.3 in the Qaid-am Basin from 2000 to 2023,analyzes the climate driving factors of vegetation with different greenness,and pre-dicts the future trends of vegetation changes with different greenness.The results showed that in the past 24 years,vegetation typesⅠ,Ⅱ,andⅢin the Qaidam Basin accounted for 49.33%,19.81%,and 30.86%of low green vegetation,respectively.Among them,the vegetation areas of Ssum,SⅠ,and SⅡdecreased significantly(P<0.001),while the vegetation area of SⅢincreased significantly,indicating a clear improvement in vegetation quali-ty;The cumulative effect of water and heat conditions on precipitation of low green vegetation for 2-3 years and temperature for 5 years is significantly(P<0.01)greater than that of the current year,indicating that a warm and humid climate promotes the healthy development of grasslands;Under the three emission scenarios of RCP2.6,RCP4.5,and RCP8.5 in the future,the overall trend of low green vegetation in the Qaidam Basin is decreasing,and future climate conditions are favorable for vegetation restoration and expansion.The research results can pro-vide scientific basis for the development of ecological environment protection and desertification control mea-sures in the Qaidam Basin.关键词
气候变化/植被绿度/气候模拟模型/趋势预估/柴达木盆地Key words
climate change/vegetation greenness/climate simulation model/trend estimation/Qaidam Basin引用本文复制引用
严应存,孙树娇,余迪,高贵生..气候变化对柴达木盆地植被绿度的影响及趋势预估[J].干旱区研究,2025,42(7):1257-1268,12.基金项目
青海省科技厅项目(2021-ZJ-611) （2021-ZJ-611）
