林业与生态科学2025，Vol.40Issue(3)：284-294,11.DOI:10.13320/j.cnki.hjfor.2025.0032
基于土地利用格局变化的京津冀土地生态风险评价
Assessment of land ecological risks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on changes in land use patterns
摘要
Abstract
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was taken as the research object.The driving factors affecting the changes in land use patterns in 2002-2022 were explored by geographic probes to simulate land use patterns.The land use patterns in 2027,2032,and 2037 were simulated in the PLUS model(patch-generating land use simulation)by taking 2022 as the base period.The landscape ecological risk indices(ERIs)were used to evaluate the spatial-temporal evolution of regional land ecological risks and the transformation rate of future land ecological risks.Then,the measures were proposed for the prevention and control of regional land ecological risks.Research results showed that:(1)The cultivated land and grassland would significantly decrease by 4 500 km2 in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2022-2037.This reduction was attributed to a conversion of 2 500 km2 into forest land and 2 000 km2 into construction land.(2)The driving factors that contributed to the changes in land use patterns included ecological environment quality,elevation,population density,and GDP per area.(3)The land ecological risks in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region first rose and then declined in 2002-2022.The transformation rate of land ecological risks gradually decreased to alleviate the situation in areas with high land ecological risks in 2022-2037.However,the distribution of high land ecological risk areas transferred from forest land and grassland to arable land.Therefore,under the influence of existing human production and life in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the potential land ecological risk will be concentrated in the eastern and southern plains arable land areas,and it is recommended to introduce stricter arable land protection policies,and to improve and refine the existing land ecological compensation policies.关键词
地理探测器/PLUS模型/土地生态风险/京津冀Key words
Geographic detector/PLUS Model/land ecological risks/the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
安帅璠,周智,赵丽,张贵军..基于土地利用格局变化的京津冀土地生态风险评价[J].林业与生态科学,2025,40(3):284-294,11.基金项目
2022-2024年度河北省社会科学基金项目(HB23GL014). （HB23GL014）
