河北农业科学2025，Vol.29Issue(2)：33-39,96,8.DOI:10.12148/hbnykx.20250002
全产业链视角下的河北奶业碳排放量测算与预测
Measurement and Prediction of Carbon Emissions from Hebei Dairy Industry from the Perspective of the Entire Industrial Chain
摘要
Abstract
Establishing and practicing the develop-ment concept of'Lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets',achieving carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060 is an inherent requirement for ecological civilization construction.Hebei Province is an important livestock production province in China,and low-carbon emissions from the dairy industry are important link in achieving carbon neutrality.Based on the perspective of the entire dairy industry chain in Hebei Province,panel data from 2012 to 2022 were obtained to analyze the current status and dynamic evolution trend of carbon emissions using time-series feature method and kernel density method.The STIRPAT extended model was used to predict the trend of carbon emissions from 2024 to 2030.The results showed that from 2012 to 2023,the total carbon emissions of Hebei dairy in-dustry showed a development trend of relatively stable-sharp decline-slow growth.There are significant differences in the changes of carbon emissions in each stage.The carbon emissions generated by cow gastroin-testinal fermentation were the highest,while those generated by feed processing and transportation were the lowest.The carbon emissions generated by feed crop planting and feed crop processing and transportation showed an overall upward trend,while the carbon emissions generated by cow gastrointestinal fermentation,fe-cal management system,feeding energy consumption,and slaughter and processing showed an overall downward trend.The proportion of carbon emissions varied greatly among different stages,with the largest proportion of carbon emissions in the gastrointestinal fermentation process and the smallest proportion in the processing and transportation of feed crops.The proportion of carbon emissions in the planting,processing and transportation of feed crops,and dairy product processing stages was generally on the rise,while the proportion of carbon emis-sions in the gastrointestinal fermentation,manure treatment,and energy consumption stages of dairy cows was generally on the decline.Among the three different scenarios,the carbon emissions of the dairy industry in Hebei Province showed an upward trend in the baseline emission reduction scenario,the growth rate of carbon emissions in Hebei dairy industry slowed down in the low-carbon emission reduction scenario I,and the carbon emissions in Hebei dairy industry began to show negative growth in 2026 in the low-carbon emission reduction scenario Ⅱ.The countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to reduce carbon emissions in the feed planting process,strengthen technological innovation,and encourage the research and development of low-cost and high-efficiency green dairy farming technologies.关键词
河北省/全产业链视角/奶业/碳排放/STIRPAT拓展模型Key words
Hebei Province/Perspective of the entire industry chain/Dairy industry/Carbon emissions/STIRPAT extended model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王蕾,韩杰,栗茜,金嘉怡,吴希妍,张艳新..全产业链视角下的河北奶业碳排放量测算与预测[J].河北农业科学,2025,29(2):33-39,96,8.基金项目
河北省科技计划项目"河北奶业振兴重大技术创新能力监测及其评价体系研究"(19227511D) （19227511D）
沧州市社会科学发展研究"政府补贴与绿色奶牛养殖业发展的演化博弈分析"(2023248) （2023248）
河北省现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金(HBCT2024230301) （HBCT2024230301）
河北省省属高等学校基本科研业务费研究项目(KY2023084) （KY2023084）
河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目"内外双驱动机制下河北省绿色低碳经济实现路径研究"(SQ2024175) （SQ2024175）
河北省高等学校创新训练项目"'双碳'目标下中国奶牛养殖业碳排放特征及影响因素研究"(2024016) （2024016）
河北省高等学校创新训练项目"全产业链视角的河北奶业碳排放研究"(2024018) （2024018）
河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目"大食物观下河北省饲料粮供给安全政策实施效果评估及优化研究"(QN2025675) （QN2025675）
