河北农业科学2025，Vol.29Issue(2)：83-92,10.DOI:10.12148/hbnykx.20250032
气候变化条件下影响河北山前平原区小麦产量的主要气候因素分析
Analysis of Main Climate Factors Influencing Wheat Yield in the Mountainous Plain Area of Hebei Province under Climate Change Conditions
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,climate change has led to an increase risk of meteorological disasters,posing a se-vere challenge to the stability of wheat production system.Clarifying the main climatic factors affecting wheat yield in Gaocheng,Hebei can provide scientific basis for adjusting disaster prevention and mitigation measures for wheat.Using the main climate factors(precipitation,average temperature,minimum temperature,relative humidity,wind speed,sunshine hours(data from 1960 to 2018 in Gaocheng,Hebei Province,as well as wheat yield data from 1994 to 2018,the chang-ing characteristics of the main climate factors during the winter wheat growing season and the impact of key climate factor changes on wheat yield were ana-lyzed.The results showed that the interannual varia-tion of precipitation during the wheat growing season was significant,but overall showed a flat trend.The average temperature and minimum temperature showed an upward trend,with an average increase of 0.28 and 0.40 ℃ every 10 years,respectively.The relative humidity,wind speed,and sunshine hours showed a decreasing trend,with an average decrease of 1.02 percentage points,0.23 m/s,and 62.4 hours per 10 years,respectively.The average temperature,minimum temperature,and wind speed during each growth stage of wheat showed significant or extremely significant changes in relative humidity from October to November and March to April,and sunshine hours from October to Novem-ber,December to February,and May.The precipitation from December to February and May,average and mini-mum temperatures from October to November,March to April,and May,sunshine hours from March to April and May,and relative humidity in May were all positively correlated with yield.Through regression analysis of wheat yield and various climatic factors,it was found that high regression coefficients for average temperature,minimum temperature,and wind speed have a significant impact on yield.Relative humidity,sunshine hours,and precipita-tion have a relatively small impact on yield.The changing trend of climate factors in the mountainous plain area of Hebei Province has been clarified,and the main climate factors affecting the increase of wheat yield in each growth stage have been identified,providing a scientific basis for the adjustment of disaster prevention and mitiga-tion measures for wheat in the region.关键词
冬小麦/气候因子/产量Key words
Winter wheat/Climatic factors/Yield分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吕丽华,刘茜,郑孟静,张经廷..气候变化条件下影响河北山前平原区小麦产量的主要气候因素分析[J].河北农业科学,2025,29(2):83-92,10.基金项目
河北省科技计划项目(22326404D) （22326404D）
河北省农业科技成果转化资金项目 （）
