红水河2025，Vol.44Issue(3)：8-14,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-408X.2025.03.002
"双碳"目标下饱和电力需求预测:特征、判据与多方法对比
Saturated Electricity Demand Forecasting under the "Dual Carbon" Goals:Characteristics,Criteria,and Multi-Method Comparisons
黄泽毅 1李祥 1陆波1
作者信息
- 1. 中国能源建设集团广西电力设计研究院有限公司,广西 南宁 530007
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global low-carbon energy transition and the advancement of the"Dual Carbon"goals,forecasting saturated electricity demand is crucial for power system balance and energy transition.This study focuses on methods for saturated electricity demand forecasting.It analyzes the characteristics of electricity demand saturation in developed countries,constructs a criteria system incorporating indicators such as the annual growth rate of electricity consumption and the annual growth rate of per capita electricity consumption,and proposes a forecasting method based on characteristic analysis and criteria development.Taking a province in southwest China as a case study,multiple methods including the per capita electricity consumption method,per capita energy consumption method,and resource endowment method are employed to forecast its saturated electricity demand.The results indicate that the province's electricity demand is expected to reach saturation around 2050,with a saturated demand level of approximately 620 billion kW h.This research provides a scientific basis for power planning and energy transition,contributing to the sustainable development of the power system under the"Dual Carbon"goals.关键词
饱和电力需求预测/"双碳"目标/电力需求特征/多方法对比/电力饱和判据Key words
saturated electricity demand forecasting/"Dual Carbon" goals/electricity demand characteristics/multi-method comparison/electricity saturation criteria分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
黄泽毅,李祥,陆波.."双碳"目标下饱和电力需求预测:特征、判据与多方法对比[J].红水河,2025,44(3):8-14,7.
