蔬菜Issue(7)：19-26,8.DOI:10.26924/j.cnki.sczz.2025.7003
中国对RCEP成员国大蒜出口贸易波动特征及成因分析
Analysis on the Fluctuation Characteristics and Causes of China's Garlic Export Trade to RCEP Member Countries
摘要
Abstract
With the official entry into force of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP),a reshaping opportunity for regional trade patterns has emerged.As the world's largest producer and trader of garlic,China holds a core position in the garlic supply chain of RCEP member countries and has significant potential for trade growth.Based on China's garlic export data to RCEP member countries from 2015 to 2023,combined with the stochastic frontier gravity model,this paper systematically analyzes the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of garlic exports.The results show that China's garlic exports to RCEP member countries have generally shown an upward trend.The market concentration is high,with Southeast Asian countries being the primary export destinations.In 2023,exports to Indonesia,Vietnam,Malaysia,the Philippines,and Thailand accounted for 91.01％of China's total garlic exports to RCEP members.The product structure is relatively simple,mainly consisting of fresh garlic and other primary processed categories(accounting for over 90％).The regression results of the stochastic frontier gravity model indicate that the economic growth and population expansion of RCEP member countries significantly promote China's garlic exports;a common language has a positive effect on trade;the liner shipping connectivity index helps increase trade volume between the two countries;while tariff levels,investment freedom,and common borders have negative impacts on trade between the two countries.Based on the research conclusions,this paper proposes countermeasures and suggestions such as strengthening infrastructure construction,promoting industrial transformation and upgrading,optimizing trade layout and processes,and deepening regional cooperation,to strengthen the trade ties between China and RCEP countries and help China's garlic industry steadily and continuously expand in the international market.关键词
RCEP/大蒜/出口/随机前沿引力模型/国际贸易/产业链/区域合作Key words
RCEP/garlic/export/stochastic frontier gravity model/international trade/industrial chain/regional cooperation引用本文复制引用
徐振华,沈伟虹,刘妍,王哲,杜丽娟..中国对RCEP成员国大蒜出口贸易波动特征及成因分析[J].蔬菜,2025,(7):19-26,8.基金项目
国家特色蔬菜产业技术体系项目(CARS-24-F-01) （CARS-24-F-01）
河北省现代农业产业技术体系设施蔬菜产业创新团队项目(HBCT2023100301) （HBCT2023100301）
河北省现代农业产业技术体系露地蔬菜创新团队项目(HBCT2023110301) （HBCT2023110301）
河北省绿色高效蔬菜产业省部共建协同创新中心. （）
